Results 55 resources
Goncalves, M., Lobo Marques, J. A., Silva, B. R. S., Luther, V., & Hayes, S. (2023). Neuromarketing and Global Branding Reaction Analysis Based on Real-Time Monitoring of Multiple Consumer’s Biosignals and Emotions. Journal of International Business and Management, 6(5), 01–32. https://doi.org/10.37227/JIBM-2023-04-5912
Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. From a global perspective, multicultural influences and societal conditions are crucial to consider. Neuroscience applications in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field aiming to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. This research aimed to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different branding advertisements. The nonadvertisement exposition was also monitored while gathering survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module with a data analytics module was implemented to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
Marques, J. A. L., Morais, J. J. B. dos R., Alves, J., & Gonçalves, M. (2023). EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF WATERFALL AND AGILE PROJECT MANAGEMENT METHODOLOGIES – A CASE STUDY FROM MACAU’S CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. Revista Gestão Em Análise, 12(1), 23–38. https://doi.org/10.12662/2359-618xregea.v12i1.p23-38.2023
The adoption of project management techniques is a crucial decision for corporate governance in construction companies since the management of areas such as risk, cost, and communications is essential for the success or failure of an endeavor. Nevertheless, different frameworks based on traditional or agile methodologies are available with several approaches, which may create several ways to manage projects. The primary purpose of this work is to investigate the adequate project management methodology for the construction industry from a general perspective and consider a case study from Macau. The methodology considered semi-structured interviews and a survey comparing international and local project managers from the construction industry. The interviews indicate that most construction project managers still follow empirical methods with no specific methodology but consider the adoption of traditional waterfall approaches. In contrast, according to the survey, most project managers and construction managers agree that the project's efficacy needs to increase, namely in planning, waste minimization, communication increase, and focus on the Client's feedback. In addition, there seems to be a clear indication that agile methodology could be implemented in several types of projects, including hospitality development projects. A hybrid development approach based on the Waterfall and Agile methodologies as a tool for the project management area may provide a more suitable methodology for project managers to follow.
Ribeiro, P., Marques, J. A. L., & Rodrigues, P. M. (2023). COVID-19 Detection by Means of ECG, Voice, and X-ray Computerized Systems: A Review. Bioengineering, 10(2), 198. https://doi.org/10.3390/bioengineering10020198
Since the beginning of 2020, Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) has attracted the attention of the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper looks into the infection mechanism, patient symptoms, and laboratory diagnosis, followed by an extensive assessment of different technologies and computerized models (based on Electrocardiographic signals (ECG), Voice, and X-ray techniques) proposed as a diagnostic tool for the accurate detection of COVID-19. The found papers showed high accuracy rate results, ranging between 85.70% and 100%, and F1-Scores from 89.52% to 100%. With this state-of-the-art, we concluded that the models proposed for the detection of COVID-19 already have significant results, but the area still has room for improvement, given the vast symptomatology and the better comprehension of individuals’ evolution of the disease.
Lin, C. C., & Marques, J. A. L. (2023). Stock Market Prediction Using Artificial Intelligence: A Systematic Review of Systematic Reviews (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 4341351). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4341351
There are many systematic reviews on predicting stock. However, each of them reveals a different portion of the hybrid AI analysis and stock prediction puzzle. The principal objective of this research was to systematically review and conclude the systematic reviews on AI and stock to provide particularly useful predictions for making future strategies for stock markets. Keywords that would fall under the broad headings of AI and stock prediction were looked up in two databases, Scopus and Web of Science. We screened 69 titles and read 43 systematic reviews which include more than 379 studies before retaining 10 of them.
Cavalcante, C. H. L., Primo, P. E. O., Sales, C. A. F., Caldas, W. L., Silva, J. H. M., Souza, A. H., Marinho, E. S., Pedrosa, R. C., Marques, J. A. L., Santos, H. S., Madeiro, J. P. V., Cavalcante, C. H. L., Primo, P. E. O., Sales, C. A. F., Caldas, W. L., Silva, J. H. M., Souza, A. H., Marinho, E. S., Pedrosa, R. C., … Madeiro, J. P. V. (2023). Sudden cardiac death multiparametric classification system for Chagas heart disease’s patients based on clinical data and 24-hours ECG monitoring. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(5), 9159–9178. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023402
<abstract><p>About 6.5 million people are infected with Chagas disease (CD) globally, and WHO estimates that $ > million people worldwide suffer from ChHD. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) represents one of the leading causes of death worldwide and affects approximately 65% of ChHD patients at a rate of 24 per 1000 patient-years, much greater than the SCD rate in the general population. Its occurrence in the specific context of ChHD needs to be better exploited. This paper provides the first evidence supporting the use of machine learning (ML) methods within non-invasive tests: patients' clinical data and cardiac restitution metrics (CRM) features extracted from ECG-Holter recordings as an adjunct in the SCD risk assessment in ChHD. The feature selection (FS) flows evaluated 5 different groups of attributes formed from patients' clinical and physiological data to identify relevant attributes among 57 features reported by 315 patients at HUCFF-UFRJ. The FS flow with FS techniques (variance, ANOVA, and recursive feature elimination) and Naive Bayes (NB) model achieved the best classification performance with 90.63% recall (sensitivity) and 80.55% AUC. The initial feature set is reduced to a subset of 13 features (4 Classification; 1 Treatment; 1 CRM; and 7 Heart Tests). The proposed method represents an intelligent diagnostic support system that predicts the high risk of SCD in ChHD patients and highlights the clinical and CRM data that most strongly impact the final outcome.</p></abstract>
Gois, F. N. B., Marques, J. A. L., de Oliveira Dantas, A. B., Santos, M. C., Neto, J. V. S., de Macêdo, J. A. F., Du, W., & Li, Y. (2023). Malaria Blood Smears Object Detection Based on Convolutional DCGAN and CNN Deep Learning Architectures. In R. Lee (Ed.), Computer and Information Science (pp. 197–212). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12127-2_14
Fast and efficient malaria diagnostics are essential in efforts to detect and treat the disease in a proper time. The standard approach to diagnose malaria is a microscope exam, which is submitted to a subjective interpretation. Thus, the automating of the diagnosis process with the use of an intelligent system capable of recognizing malaria parasites could aid in the early treatment of the disease. Usually, laboratories capture a minimum set of images in low quality using a system of microscopes based on mobile devices. Due to the poor quality of such data, conventional algorithms do not process those images properly. This paper presents the application of deep learning techniques to improve the accuracy of malaria plasmodium detection in the presented context. In order to increase the number of training sets, deep convolutional generative adversarial networks (DCGAN) were used to generate reliable training data that were introduced in our deep learning model to improve accuracy. A total of 6 experiments were performed and a synthesized dataset of 2.200 images was generated by the DCGAN for the training phase. For a real image database with 600 blood smears with malaria plasmodium, the proposed Deep Learning architecture obtained the accuracy of 100% for the plasmodium detection. The results are promising and the solution could be employed to support a mass medical diagnosis system.
Lobo Marques. (2023). The (non) standardized classroom - the analysis of three different cultures in the higher education systems - Angola, Brazil and Macau SAR, China. In Disentangled Vision on Higher Education: Preparing the Generation Next (pp. 329–351). Peter Lang. https://www.peterlang.com/document/1266828
This book offers an objective and dispassionate analysis of modern educational architecture allowing us to notice gaps. The fundamental question addressed is whether our education system will embrace knowledge-based society and have the foresight to better prepare future generations. If educators around the world step back for a moment, it is not difficult to notice that unanswered questions about education are looming everywhere. The existent academic literature on education is abundant and embracing. In consequence, one can ask why is this book necessary? Indeed, this book is the result of senior university professors sharing their learnings and anticipating the pivotal issues facing all education professionals. According to the United Nations, by 2050, 68% of the world’s population will be living in urban areas. This fact cannot be ignored as it is one of the drivers of the profile of the future students. The reasons to organize this publication are many, but among them three stand out which also function as the driving forces behind this project: (1) University professors teach future generations based on models grounded on knowledge advanced by past experiences; (2) The decisive requirement to understand the needs of the new generations of university millennial students; and (3) What are the critical challenges of global societies? "This book problematizes the issues concerning education, and its main contribution is to answer the need to rethink education, face contemporary challenges, and reorganize the way public policies address education. It critically analyses the challenges of global societies in a decentralized perspective, not only reflecting a western perspective of education and knowledge production. The project's originality comes from the contemporaneity of the topics covered, from the interdisciplinary perspective, and from the specific attention given to trends around education." —Cátia Miriam Costa, Researcher and Invited Assistant Professor, Centre for International Studies, Perfil Ciência
Santos, A. S. K., & Marques, J. A. L. (2023). Sustainable Practices in Hotel Chains—A Comparative Analysis of Official Annual Hospitality Sustainable Reports from Listed Companies in Macau SAR, China. In W. C. Gartner (Ed.), New Perspectives and Paradigms in Applied Economics and Business (pp. 319–338). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-23844-4_23
In the last few years, the tourism industry has experienced rapid expansion and diversification, making it one of the fastest-growing financial industries in the world. Consequently, the hotel industry has significantly affected the environment's long-term viability. Many hotels have begun voluntarily implementing environmentally sustainable practices as they become more aware of their ecological footprint. There has been a great deal of discussion about the effects of hotel operations on the environment and tourism sustainability in Macau. It is because of these negative impacts that hoteliers have adopted green practices in an attempt to minimize them. By developing sustainability reports, hotels can set goals, measure performance, and manage change, resulting in better sustainability. It could also be viewed as a strategy to enhance the company’s sustainability reporting to ensure stakeholders know what the company does. The objective of this study is twofold based on the analysis of the official sustainability reports of four major hotel chains. Firstly, seven categories of sustainable practices effectively adopted by these chain hotels are identified and clusterized. Second, it is presented in which areas some hotels performed more efficiently than others, considering the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a reference. The results allow a comprehensive clusterized analysis of the industry in a highly developed gaming and entertainment area of South China and create a clear comparison between relevant players and their concerns about sustainability practices.
Singh, P., Chaudhary, G., & Lobo Marques, J. A. (2023). Medical Information Extraction of Clinical Notes and Pictorial Visualisation of Electronic Medical Records Summary Interface. In Smart Distributed Embedded Systems for Healthcare Applications (pp. 29–40). CRC Press. https://www.routledge.com/Smart-Distributed-Embedded-Systems-for-Healthcare-Applications/Nagrath-Alzubi-Singla-Rodrigues-Verma/p/book/9781032183473
Yan, K., Li, T., Marques, J. A. L., Gao, J., Fong, S. J., Yan, K., Li, T., Marques, J. A. L., Gao, J., & Fong, S. J. (2023). A review on multimodal machine learning in medical diagnostics. Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering, 20(5), 8708–8726. https://doi.org/10.3934/mbe.2023382
Nowadays, the increasing number of medical diagnostic data and clinical data provide more complementary references for doctors to make diagnosis to patients. For example, with medical data, such as electrocardiography (ECG), machine learning algorithms can be used to identify and diagnose heart disease to reduce the workload of doctors. However, ECG data is always exposed to various kinds of noise and interference in reality, and medical diagnostics only based on one-dimensional ECG data is not trustable enough. By extracting new features from other types of medical data, we can implement enhanced recognition methods, called multimodal learning. Multimodal learning helps models to process data from a range of different sources, eliminate the requirement for training each single learning modality, and improve the robustness of models with the diversity of data. Growing number of articles in recent years have been devoted to investigating how to extract data from different sources and build accurate multimodal machine learning models, or deep learning models for medical diagnostics. This paper reviews and summarizes several recent papers that dealing with multimodal machine learning in disease detection, and identify topics for future research.
Lai, C., & Joao, A. L. M. (2022). Investigation on citizen trust towards e-government services in GBA – A study on WeChat and Alipay government service mini-programs. 2022 13th International Conference on E-Business, Management and Economics, 588–594. https://doi.org/10.1145/3556089.3556110
Citizens' trust in eGovernment is crucial for the successful implementation of new electronic services. This relationship in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) plays an essential role since the Government services rely on mobile mini-programs This study investigates the trust towards government service mini-programs in WeChat and Alipay. A user feedback questionnaire was designed, and a total of 609 valid samples were collected from Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau. The findings imply that competence, integrity, and benevolence are the key components of trust in e-government (TIEG). TIEG positively influences perceived value (PV), which positively affects citizens' Intention to adopt service mini-programs. PV significantly mediates the relationship between TIEG and Intention. Although TIEG does not effectively reduce perceived risk (PR), risk issues cannot be ignored in the adoption process. Finally, this article proposes relevant implications and suggestions for the GBA government agents and policy makers.
Neto, A., & Lobo Marques, J. A. (2022). The future of Cosmetics Advertisement Strategy: A Neuromarketing Study using Electrodermal Activity (EDA) as a measure of Emotional Arousal. 2022 13th International Conference on E-Business, Management and Economics, 81–86. https://doi.org/10.1145/3556089.3556126
Neuromarketing lies at the intersection of three main disciplines: psychology, neuroscience, and marketing, and it has been a successful neuroscientific approach for the study of real-life choices such as consumer behavior . A current gap in the cosmetics field is the lack of published research studies, considering the marketing investment done yearly in this category. With the rapid economic expansion and the rise of social media in China, consumers' interest in beauty is growing. Even though the Chinese cosmetics sector is rapidly expanding, no studies have been done with Chinese consumers. This study aims to employ the same approach as previously done in consumer neuroscience studies to evaluate cosmetic brands' marketing strategy to understand better if immediate emotional responses can be measured using Electrodermal Activity (EDA). Here, we focus on cosmetics products advertisement as a model to understand consumer preference formation and choice. Eighteen Chinese female consumers were recruited between 19 and 37 years old. From the results obtained, it was understood that none of the participants have voted for the product advertisement for which they showed higher emotional arousal. However, it appears that the participants' preference is for the products for which the brand awareness is stronger since the product advertisements with more votes are the ones for the Korean brand used. The product advertisements with Asian faces were the ones with more votes, suggesting that Asian faces have engaged consumer preference. However, the product advertisements for the Brazilian brands, unknown to the Chinese public, were the ones with fewer votes, although, those product advertisements were the ones with more emotional arousal per minute. Those advertisements were also those with non-Asian faces, suggesting that this feature influenced voting decisions. From this study, it has been observed that Electrodermal Activity is a measure of emotional arousal that by itself cannot be translated into consumer engagement. Therefore, it is also proposed to evaluate brand awareness in future studies related to product advertisements. The physical features of the people included in the advertisements is also suggested to be further evaluated in future studies since a different cultural background seems to influence the consumers' engagement. Furthermore, using EDA to complement other neurophysiological tools like facial expression analysis is also suggested for future studies to have evidence about the nature of the emotions raised.
Tagulao, T. C. S., & Marques, J. A. L. (2022). The Application of Nudge Theory in Ensuring Change Acceptance in the Hospitality-Gaming Industry – A Case Analysis from Macau SAR, China. 2022 13th International Conference on E-Business, Management and Economics, 533–539. https://doi.org/10.1145/3556089.3556121
As the rate of change increases exponentially, organizations must adapt quickly to the business landscape's volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). As a result, organizations must implement agile strategies and practices to ensure their responsiveness and readiness to any changes brought about by internal or external factors. With a greater number of changes, change agents are tasked with implementing various change management methodologies to ensure that change recipients accept change initiatives. This research will look at one of the methodologies used by change agents, the use of nudges from Thaler and Sunstein's Nudge Theory, which is a subtle intervention to influence an individual's decision-making with the goal of steering them towards a specific desired outcome; and analyze their effectiveness towards the change recipients when implemented. Change agents were interviewed on the application of Nudge Theory to change recipients when managing to change initiatives within their respective organizations. The results indicate that the use of nudges created by the change agents can significantly impact the level of resistance from the change recipients. If used correctly, the Nudge Theory can mitigate change resistance, and the success of a change initiative is higher. But, if change recipients are forced to comply, their resistance will be greater, affecting the organization overall.
Goncalves, M. V., Marques, J. A. L., Silva, B. R. S., Luther, V., & Hayes, S. (2022). Neuromarketing and Global Branding Reaction Analysis Based on Real-Time Monitoring of Multiple Consumer’s Biosignals and Emotions (SSRN Scholarly Paper No. 4071297). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4071297
Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. Multicultural influences and societal conditions are also crucial aspects to consider from a global perspective. Applying neuroscience tools and techniques in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field that aims to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. The primary purpose of this research was to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different types of branding advertisements. The non-advertisement exposition was also monitored during the gathering of survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module was implemented with a data analytics module to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
Lôbo Marques, J. A., Bernardo Gois, F. N., Nunes da Silveira, J. A., Li, T., & Fong, S. J. (2022). AI and deep learning for processing the huge amount of patient-centric data that assist in clinical decisions. In A. K. Bhoi, V. H. C. de Albuquerque, P. N. Srinivasu, & G. Marques (Eds.), Cognitive and Soft Computing Techniques for the Analysis of Healthcare Data (pp. 101–121). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-85751-2.00001-3
The area of clinical decision support systems (CDSS) is facing a boost in research and development with the increasing amount of data in clinical analysis together with new tools to support patient care. This creates a vibrant and challenging environment for the medical and technical staff. This chapter presents a discussion about the challenges and trends of CDSS considering big data and patient-centered constraints. Two case studies are presented in detail. The first presents the development of a big data and AI classification system for maternal and fetal ambulatory monitoring, composed by different solutions such as the implementation of an Internet of Things sensors and devices network, a fuzzy inference system for emergency alarms, a feature extraction model based on signal processing of the fetal and maternal data, and finally a deep learning classifier with six convolutional layers achieving an F1-score of 0.89 for the case of both maternal and fetal as harmful. The system was designed to support maternal–fetal ambulatory premises in developing countries, where the demand is extremely high and the number of medical specialists is very low. The second case study considered two artificial intelligence approaches to providing efficient prediction of infections for clinical decision support during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. First, LSTM recurrent neural networks were considered with the model achieving R2=0.93 and MAE=40,604.4 in average, while the best, R2=0.9939, was achieved for the time series 3. Second, an open-source framework called H2O AutoML was considered with the “stacked ensemble” approach and presented the best performance followed by XGBoost. Brazil has been one of the most challenging environments during the pandemic and where efficient predictions may be the difference in saving lives. The presentation of such different approaches (ambulatory monitoring and epidemiology data) is important to illustrate the large spectrum of AI tools to support clinical decision-making.
Marques, J. A. L., Gois, F. N. B., Madeiro, J. P. do V., Li, T., & Fong, S. J. (2022). Artificial neural network-based approaches for computer-aided disease diagnosis and treatment. In A. K. Bhoi, V. H. C. de Albuquerque, P. N. Srinivasu, & G. Marques (Eds.), Cognitive and Soft Computing Techniques for the Analysis of Healthcare Data (pp. 79–99). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-85751-2.00008-6
The adoption of computer-aided diagnosis and treatment systems based on different types of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is already a reality in several hospital and ambulatory premises. This chapter aims to present a discussion focused on the challenges and trends of adopting these computerized systems, highlighting solutions based on different types and approaches of ANN, more specifically, feed-forward, recurrent, and deep convolutional architectures. One section is focused on the application of AI/ANN solutions to support cardiology in different applications, such as the classification of the heart structure and functional behavior based on echocardiography images; the automatic analysis of the heart electric activity based on ECG signals; and the diagnosis support of angiogram images during surgical interventions. Finally, a case study is presented based on the application of a deep learning convolutional network together with a recent technique called transfer learning to detect brain tumors using an MRI images data set. According to the findings, the model has a high degree of specificity (precision of 0.93 and recall of 0.94 for images with no brain tumor) and can be used as a screening tool for images that do not contain a brain tumor. The f1-score for images with brain tumor was 0.93. The results achieved are very promising and the proposed solution may be considered to be used as a computer-aided diagnosis tool based on deep learning convolutional neural networks. Future works will consider other techniques and compare them with the one presented here. With the comprehensive approach and overview of multiple applications, it is valid to conclude that computer-aided diagnosis and treatment systems are important tools to be considered today and will be an essential part of the trend of personalized medicine over the coming years.
Arraut, I., Marques, J. A. L., Fong, S. J., Li, G., Gois, F. N. B., & Neto, J. X. (2022). A Quantum Field Formulation for a Pandemic Propagation. In J. A. L. Marques & S. J. Fong (Eds.), Epidemic Analytics for Decision Supports in COVID19 Crisis (pp. 141–158). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95281-5_6
In this chapter, a mathematical model explaining generically the propagation of a pandemic is proposed, helping in this way to identify the fundamental parameters related to the outbreak in general. Three free parameters for the pandemic are identified, which can be finally reduced to only two independent parameters. The model is inspired in the concept of spontaneous symmetry breaking, used normally in quantum field theory, and it provides the possibility of analyzing the complex data of the pandemic in a compact way. Data from 12 different countries are considered and the results presented. The application of nonlinear quantum physics equations to model epidemiologic time series is an innovative and promising approach.
Fong, S. J., Marques, J. A. L., Li, G., Dey, N., Crespo, R. G., Herrera-Viedma, E., Gois, F. N. B., & Neto, J. X. (2022). Analysis of the COVID19 Pandemic Behaviour Based on the Compartmental SEAIRD and Adaptive SVEAIRD Epidemiologic Models. In J. A. L. Marques & S. J. Fong (Eds.), Epidemic Analytics for Decision Supports in COVID19 Crisis (pp. 17–64). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95281-5_2
A significant number of people infected by COVID19 do not get sick immediately but become carriers of the disease. These patients might have a certain incubation period. However, the classical compartmental model, SEIR, was not originally designed for COVID19. We used the simple, commonly used SEIR model to retrospectively analyse the initial pandemic data from Singapore. Here, the SEIR model was combined with the actual published Singapore pandemic data, and the key parameters were determined by maximizing the nonlinear goodness of fit R2 and minimizing the root mean square error. These parameters served for the fast and directional convergence of the parameters of an improved model. To cover the quarantine and asymptomatic variables, the existing SEIR model was extended to an infectious disease model with a greater number of population compartments, and with parameter values that were tuned adaptively by solving the nonlinear dynamics equations over the available pandemic data, as well as referring to previous experience with SARS. The contribution presented in this paper is a new model called the adaptive SEAIRD model; it considers the new characteristics of COVID19 and is therefore applicable to a population including asymptomatic carriers. The predictive value is enhanced by tuning of the optimal parameters, whose values better reflect the current pandemic.
Fong, S. J., Marques, J. A. L., Li, G., Dey, N., Crespo, R. G., Herrera-Viedma, E., Gois, F. N. B., & Neto, J. X. (2022). The Comparison of Different Linear and Nonlinear Models Using Preliminary Data to Efficiently Analyze the COVID-19 Outbreak. In J. A. L. Marques & S. J. Fong (Eds.), Epidemic Analytics for Decision Supports in COVID19 Crisis (pp. 65–81). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95281-5_3
The COVID-19 pandemic spread generated an urgent need for computational systems to model its behavior and support governments and healthcare teams to make proper decisions. There are not many cases of global pandemics in history, and the most recent one has unique characteristics, which are tightly connected to the current society’s lifestyle and beliefs, creating an environment of uncertainty. Because of that, the development of mathematical/computational models to forecast the pandemic behavior since its beginning, i.e., with a restricted amount of data collected, is necessary. This chapter focuses on the analysis of different data mining techniques to allow the pandemic prediction with a small amount of data. A case study is presented considering the data from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus was first detected, and the place where the major outbreak occurred. The PNN + CF method (Polynomial Neural Network with Corrective Feedback) is presented as the technique with the best prediction performance. This is a promising method that might be considered in future eventual waves of the current pandemic or event to have a suitable model for future epidemic outbreaks around the world.
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