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There are several techniques to support simulation of time series behavior. In this chapter, the approach will be based on the Composite Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation method. This method is able to model future outcomes of time series under analysis from the available data. The establishment of multiple correlations and causality between the data allows modeling the variables and probabilistic distributions and subsequently obtaining also probabilistic results for time series forecasting. To improve the predictor efficiency, computational intelligence techniques are proposed, including a fuzzy inference system and an Artificial Neural Network architecture. This type of model is suitable to be considered not only for the disease monitoring and compartmental classes, but also for managerial data such as clinical resources, medical and health team allocation, and bed management, which are data related to complex decision-making challenges.
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The application of different tools for predicting COVID19 cases spreading has been widely considered during the pandemic. Comparing different approaches is essential to analyze performance and the practical support they can provide for the current pandemic management. This work proposes using the susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic but infectious-symptomatic and infectious-recovered-deceased (SEAIRD) model for different learning models. The first analysis considers an unsupervised prediction, based directly on the epidemiologic compartmental model. After that, two supervised learning models are considered integrating computational intelligence techniques and control engineering: the fuzzy-PID and the wavelet-ANN-PID models. The purpose is to compare different predictor strategies to validate a viable predictive control system for the COVID19 relevant epidemiologic time series. For each model, after setting the initial conditions for each parameter, the prediction performance is calculated based on the presented data. The use of PID controllers is justified to avoid divergence in the system when the learning process is conducted. The wavelet neural network solution is considered here because of its rapid convergence rate. The proposed solutions are dynamic and can be adjusted and corrected in real time, according to the output error. The results are presented in each subsection of the chapter.
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Fast and efficient malaria diagnostics are essential in efforts to detect and treat the disease in a proper time. The standard approach to diagnose malaria is a microscope exam, which is submitted to a subjective interpretation. Thus, the automating of the diagnosis process with the use of an intelligent system capable of recognizing malaria parasites could aid in the early treatment of the disease. Usually, laboratories capture a minimum set of images in low quality using a system of microscopes based on mobile devices. Due to the poor quality of such data, conventional algorithms do not process those images properly. This paper presents the application of deep learning techniques to improve the accuracy of malaria plasmodium detection in the presented context. In order to increase the number of training sets, deep convolutional generative adversarial networks (DCGAN) were used to generate reliable training data that were introduced in our deep learning model to improve accuracy. A total of 6 experiments were performed and a synthesized dataset of 2.200 images was generated by the DCGAN for the training phase. For a real image database with 600 blood smears with malaria plasmodium, the proposed Deep Learning architecture obtained the accuracy of 100% for the plasmodium detection. The results are promising and the solution could be employed to support a mass medical diagnosis system.
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Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. Multicultural influences and societal conditions are also crucial aspects to consider from a global perspective. Applying neuroscience tools and techniques in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field that aims to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. The primary purpose of this research was to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different types of branding advertisements. The non-advertisement exposition was also monitored during the gathering of survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module was implemented with a data analytics module to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
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Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. From a global perspective, multicultural influences and societal conditions are crucial to consider. Neuroscience applications in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field aiming to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. This research aimed to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different branding advertisements. The nonadvertisement exposition was also monitored while gathering survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module with a data analytics module was implemented to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
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The pathophysiological mechanisms of arterial hypertension during hemodialysis (HD) in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are still poorly understood. The aim of this study is to investigate physiological, cardiovascular and neuroendocrine changes in patients with ESRD and its correlation with changes in blood pressure (BP) during the HD session. The present study included 21 patients with ESRD undergoing chronic HD treatment. Group A (study) consisted of patients who had BP increase and group B (control) consisted of those who had BP reduction during HD session. Echocardiograms were performed during the HD session to evaluate cardiac output (CO) and systemic vascular resistance (SVR). Before and after the HD session, blood samples were collected to measure brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), catecholamines, endothelin-1 (ET-1), nitric oxide (NO), electrolytes, hematocrit, albumin and nitrogen substances. The mean age of the studied patients was 43±4.9 years, and 54.6% were males. SVR significantly increased in group A (P<0.001). There were no differences in the values of BNP, NO, adrenalin, dopamin and noradrenalin, before and after dialysis, between the two groups. The mean value of ET-1, post HD, was 25.9 pg ml−1 in group A and 13.3 pg ml−1 in group B (P=<0.001). Patients with ESRD showed different hemodynamic patterns during the HD session, with significant BP increase in group A, caused by an increase in SVR possibly due to endothelial dysfunction, evidenced by an increase in serum ET-1 levels.
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Human emotions can be associated with decision-making, and emotions can generate behaviors. Due to the fact that it could be biased and exhaustively complex to examine how human beings make choices, it is necessary to consider relevant groups of study, such as stock traders and non-traders in finance. This work aims to analyze the connection between emotions and the decision-making process of investors and non-investors submitted to the same set of stimuli to understand how emotional arousal might dictate the decision process. Neuroscience monitoring tools such as Real-Time Facial Expression Analysis (AFFDEX), Eye-Tracking, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) were adopted to monitor the related experiments of this paper and its accompanying analysis process. Thirty-seven participants attended the study, 24 were classified as stock traders, and 13 were non-traders; the mean age for the groups was 35 and 25, respectively. The designed experiment initially disclosed a thought-provoking result between the two groups under the certainty and risk-seeking prospect theory; there were more risk-takers among non-investors at 75%, while investors were inclined toward certainty at 79.17%. The implication could be that the non-investing individuals were less complex in thought and therefore pursued higher returns besides a high probability of losing the game. In addition, the automatic emotion classification system indicates that when non-investors confronted a stock trending chart beyond their acquaintance or knowledge, they were psychologically exposed to fear, anger, sadness, and surprise. On the contrary, investors were detected with disgust, joy, contempt, engagement, sadness, and surprise, where sadness and surprise overlapped in both parties. Under time pressure conditions, 54.05% of investors or non-investors tend to make decisions after the peak(s) of emotional arousal. Variations were found in the deciding points of the slopes: 2.70% were decided right after the peak(s), 37.84% waited until the emotions turned stable, and 13.51% were determined as the emotional indicators started to slide downwards. Several combinations of emotional responses were associated with decisions. For example, negative emotions could induce passive decision-making, in this case, to sell the stock; nevertheless, it was also examined that as the slope slipped downwards to a particular horizontal point, the individuals became more optimistic and selected the "BUY" option. Future works may consider expanding the study to larger sample size, different demographic groups, and other biometrics for further analysis and conclusions.
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Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) can benefit significantly from open innovation by gaining access to a broader range of resources and expertise using absorptive capacitive, and increasing their visibility and reputation. Nevertheless, multiple barriers impact their capacity to absorb new technologies or adapt to develop them. This paper aims to perform an analysis of relevant topics and trends in Open Innovation (OI) and Absorptive Capacity (AC) in SMEs based on a bibliometric review identifying relevant authors and countries, and highlighting significant research themes and trends. The defined string query is submitted to the Web of Science database, and the bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer software. The results indicate that the number of scientific publications has consistently increased during the past decade, indicating a growing interest of the scientific community, reflecting the industry interest and possibly adoption of OI, considering Absorptive. This bibliometric analysis can provide insights on the most relevant regions the research areas are under intensive development.
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China growing awareness of sustainability has brought out relevant aspects to move towards a green environment. Since its subscription in 2016, China has been committed to implementing the Paris Agreement, and the Greater Bay Area (GBA) development plan prioritizes ecology and pursuing green development. The primary purpose of this research is to perceive the companies' insights concerning the implementation of sustainable buildings’ projects in Macau. For this multi-case study analysis, primary data was gathered from interviews with two groups involved in the construction projects’ lifecycle: Consultants and Contractors, to analyze different perceptions and concerns. The interviews considered two different themes about the main topic: (1) Perception on Companies’ Experience in Sustainable Projects; (2) Key Drivers towards Sustainable Buildings’ Projects’ Implementation. In conclusion, according to the analyzed data, it is essential to notice that companies’ background and the market particularities affect their corporate performance specially connected to the green construction frameworks. The data also indicate that it is necessary to move towards regulations and policies to change corporate and people's mindset.
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Quality of life in general population before and during pandemic is topic need to be address by researcher in terms of mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The study was carried out among Saudi population. Data were collected from general population using questionnaire during the period from 22 August 2021 to 10th January 2022. As a result, total 214 participants have included in this study. Among them prevalent age group include 40 years (n= 63, 29.4%) shadowed by the age group 25-35 (n= 61, 28.5%) while above 60 years group were least frequent (n= 1, 0.5%). On questioning the applicants whether they were satisfied with their health and how would they rate their quality of life, their answers were as follows: yes, or satisfied (n= 86, 40.2%), very Satisfied (n= 102, 47.7%) Dissatisfied (n= 11, 5.1%) and neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (n= 15, 7%). Due to pandemic, they were rate quality of life very good (n= 94, 43.9%), good (n= 63, 29.4 %) poor (n= 5, 2.3 %) and neither good and nor poor (n= 52, 24.3 %). During pandemic 96 participants feel no change in their weight but 110 participants respond that there is increase in coffee intake during the pandemic. Similarly increased in smoking habits and decrease rate in social activities (n=119,41.4%). The psychosomatic well-being of people has been interrupted by disturbing their social activities during pandemic.
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Citizens' trust in eGovernment is crucial for the successful implementation of new electronic services. This relationship in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) plays an essential role since the Government services rely on mobile mini-programs This study investigates the trust towards government service mini-programs in WeChat and Alipay. A user feedback questionnaire was designed, and a total of 609 valid samples were collected from Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, and Macau. The findings imply that competence, integrity, and benevolence are the key components of trust in e-government (TIEG). TIEG positively influences perceived value (PV), which positively affects citizens' Intention to adopt service mini-programs. PV significantly mediates the relationship between TIEG and Intention. Although TIEG does not effectively reduce perceived risk (PR), risk issues cannot be ignored in the adoption process. Finally, this article proposes relevant implications and suggestions for the GBA government agents and policy makers.
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The extent of citizens' trust in government determines the success or failure of e-government initiatives. Nevertheless, the idiosyncrasies of the concept and the broad spectrum of its approach still present relevant challenges. This work presents a systematic literature review on e-government trust while elaborating and summarizing a conceptual analysis of trust, introducing evaluation methods for government trust, and compiling relevant research on e-government trust and intentional behavior. A total of 26 key factors that constitute trust have been identified and classified into six categories: Government trust, Trust in Internet and technology (TiIT), Trust in e-government (TiEG), Personal Beliefs, Trustworthiness, and Trust of intermediary (ToI). The value added of this work consists of developing a conceptual framework of TiEG to provide a significant reference for future in-depth studies and research on e-government trust.
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Association Rule Mining by Aprior method has been one of the popular data mining techniques for decades, where knowledge in the form of item-association rules is harvested from a dataset. The quality of item-association rules nevertheless depends on the concentration of frequent items from the input dataset. When the dataset becomes large, the items are scattered far apart. It is known from previous literature that clustering helps produce some data groups which are concentrated with frequent items. Among all the data clusters generated by a clustering algorithm, there must be one or more clusters which contain suitable and frequent items. In turn, the association rules that are mined from such clusters would be assured of better qualities in terms of high confidence than those mined from the whole dataset. However, it is not known in advance which cluster is the suitable one until all the clusters are tried by association rule mining. It is time consuming if they were to be tested by brute-force. In this paper, a statistical property called prior probability is investigated with respect to selecting the best out of many clusters by a clustering algorithm as a pre-processing step before association rule mining. Experiment results indicate that there is correlation between prior probability of the best cluster and the relatively high quality of association rules generated from that cluster. The results are significant as it is possible to know which cluster should be best used for association rule mining instead of testing them all out exhaustively.
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The use of learning analytics (LA) in real-world educational applications is growing very fast as academic institutions realize the positive potential that is possible if LA is integrated in decision making. Education in schools on public health need to evolve in response to the new knowledge and th...
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Stock price prediction has always been challenging due to its volatility and unpredictability. This paper performs a preliminary exploratory comparison that utilizes Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms to forecast the stock market in Hong Kong. It considers a public dataset publicly available and uses feature engineering to extract relevant features. Then, LSTM and SVM algorithms are applied to predict stock prices. Our results show that the proposed machine learning techniques can predict stock prices in Hong Kong's share market with the error metrics presented, and, for this purpose, LSTM achieved better results than SVM, with MSE = 0.0026, RMSE = 0.0508, MAE = 0.0406, and MAPE = 1.325.
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There are many systematic reviews on predicting stock. However, each of them reveals a different portion of the hybrid AI analysis and stock prediction puzzle. The principal objective of this research was to systematically review and conclude the systematic reviews on AI and stock to provide particularly useful predictions for making future strategies for stock markets. Keywords that would fall under the broad headings of AI and stock prediction were looked up in two databases, Scopus and Web of Science. We screened 69 titles and read 43 systematic reviews which include more than 379 studies before retaining 10 of them.
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