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Following the World Health Organization proclaims a pandemic due to a disease that originated in China and advances rapidly across the globe, studies to predict the behavior of epidemics have become increasingly popular, mainly related to COVID-19. The critical point of these studies is to discuss the disease's behavior and the progression of the virus's natural course. However, the prediction of the actual number of infected people has proved to be a difficult task, due to a wide range of factors, such as mass testing, social isolation, underreporting of cases, among others. Therefore, the objective of this work is to understand the behavior of COVID-19 in the state of Ceará to forecast the total number of infected people and to aid in government decisions to control the outbreak of the virus and minimize social impacts and economics caused by the pandemic. So, to understand the behavior of COVID-19, this work discusses some forecast techniques using machine learning, logistic regression, filters, and epidemiologic models. Also, this work brings a new approach to the problem, bringing together data from Ceará with those from China, generating a hybrid dataset, and providing promising results. Finally, this work still compares the different approaches and techniques presented, opening opportunities for future discussions on the topic. The study obtains predictions with R2 score of 0.99 to short-term predictions and 0.93 to long-term predictions.
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COVID-19 has hit the world unprepared, as the deadliest pandemic of the century. Governments and authorities, as leaders and decision makers fighting the virus, enormously tap into the power of artificial intelligence and its predictive models for urgent decision support. This book showcases a collection of important predictive models that used during the pandemic, and discusses and compares their efficacy and limitations. Readers from both healthcare industries and academia can gain unique insights on how predictive models were designed and applied on epidemic data. Taking COVID19 as a case study and showcasing the lessons learnt, this book will enable readers to be better prepared in the event of virus epidemics or pandemics in the future.
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The pathophysiological mechanisms of arterial hypertension during hemodialysis (HD) in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are still poorly understood. The aim of this study is to investigate physiological, cardiovascular and neuroendocrine changes in patients with ESRD and its correlation with changes in blood pressure (BP) during the HD session. The present study included 21 patients with ESRD undergoing chronic HD treatment. Group A (study) consisted of patients who had BP increase and group B (control) consisted of those who had BP reduction during HD session. Echocardiograms were performed during the HD session to evaluate cardiac output (CO) and systemic vascular resistance (SVR). Before and after the HD session, blood samples were collected to measure brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), catecholamines, endothelin-1 (ET-1), nitric oxide (NO), electrolytes, hematocrit, albumin and nitrogen substances. The mean age of the studied patients was 43±4.9 years, and 54.6% were males. SVR significantly increased in group A (P<0.001). There were no differences in the values of BNP, NO, adrenalin, dopamin and noradrenalin, before and after dialysis, between the two groups. The mean value of ET-1, post HD, was 25.9 pg ml−1 in group A and 13.3 pg ml−1 in group B (P=<0.001). Patients with ESRD showed different hemodynamic patterns during the HD session, with significant BP increase in group A, caused by an increase in SVR possibly due to endothelial dysfunction, evidenced by an increase in serum ET-1 levels.
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It is known that the probability is not a conserved quantity in the stock market, given the fact that it corresponds to an open system. In this paper we analyze the flow of probability in this system by expressing the ideal Black-Scholes equation in the Hamiltonian form. We then analyze how the non-conservation of probability affects the stability of the prices of the Stocks. Finally, we find the conditions under which the probability might be conserved in the market, challenging in this way the non-Hermitian nature of the Black-Scholes Hamiltonian.
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Continuous cardiac monitoring has been increasingly adopted to prevent heart diseases, especially the case of Chagas disease, a chronic condition that can degrade the heart condition, leading to sudden cardiac death. Unfortunately, a common challenge for these systems is the low-quality and high level of noise in ECG signal collection. Also, generic techniques to assess the ECG quality can discard useful information in these so-called chagasic ECG signals. To mitigate this issue, this work proposes a 1D CNN network to assess the quality of the ECG signal for chagasic patients and compare it to the state of art techniques. Segments of 10 s were extracted from 200 1-lead ECG Holter signals. Different feature extractions were considered such as morphological fiducial points, interval duration, and statistical features, aiming to classify 400 segments into four signal quality types: Acceptable ECG, Non-ECG, Wandering Baseline (WB), and AC Interference (ACI) segments. The proposed CNN architecture achieves a $$0.90 \pm 0.02$$accuracy in the multi-classification experiment and also $$0.94 \pm 0.01$$when considering only acceptable ECG against the other three classes. Also, we presented a complementary experiment showing that, after removing noisy segments, we improved morphological recognition (based on QRS wave) by 33% of the entire ECG data. The proposed noise detector may be applied as a useful tool for pre-processing chagasic ECG signals.
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The invention of neuroscience has benefited medical practitioners and businesses in improving their management and leadership. Neuromarketing, a field that combines neuroscience and marketing, helps businesses understand consumer behaviour and how they respond to advertising stimuli. This study aims to investigate the consumer purchase intention and preferences to improve the marketing management of the brand, based on neuroscientific tools such as emotional arousal using Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) sensors, eye-tracking, and emotion analysis through facial expressions classification. The stimuli for the experiment are two advertisement videos from the Macau tea brand “Guanding Teahouse” followed by a survey. The experiment was conducted on 40 participants. 76.2% of participants that chose the same product in the first survey responded with the same choice of products in the second survey. The GSR peaks in video ad 1 measured a total of 60. On the other hand, video ad 2 counted a total of 55 GSR peaks. The emotions in ad1 and ad2 have similar responses, with an attention percentage of 76%. The results showed that ad1 has a higher engagement time of 11.1% and ad2 has 9.6%, but only 19 of the respondent’s conducted engagement in video ad1, and 31 showed engagement in video ad2. The results demonstrated that although ad 1 has higher engagement rates, the respondents are more attracted to video ad 2. Therefore, ad2 has better marketing power than ad 1. Overall, this study bridges the gap of no previous research on measuring tea brand advertisements with the neuroscientific method. The results provide valuable insights for marketers to develop better advertisements and marketing campaigns and understand consumer preferences by personalising and targeting advertisements based on consumers' emotional responses and behaviour of consumers' purchase intentions. Future research could explore advertisements targeting different demographics.
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This research aims to evaluate a Macau tea brand's social media advertising effectiveness with neuromarketing tools, including physiological monitoring that can measure emotional arousal. This research bridges the gap of social media marketing on Instagram for brands through the neuromarketing method. Data from 40 respondents were collected with iMotions software using neuroscientific tools. This research uses the stimuli of Guanding Teahouse, a newly established Macau tea brand, to evaluate social media advertising effectiveness. The neuroscientific tools – Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) sensors, Eye-tracking, Facial Expression Analysis (FEA) and emotion analysis are used to do the experiment. The data analysis was drawn from one representative respondent to measure the emotions and attention on the Instagram advertisements. Video 1 recorded 9 GSR peaks and Video 2 recorded 12 GSR peaks, both videos attention is ranging between 96-98 indexes. Results show that advertising videos should focus more on the products than the model. Moreover, the participant is more interested in Video 2, but the effectiveness of advertising is showing a lower focus on the brand and the tea. Future studies should consider comparing the video advertising effectiveness of Instagram stories and Instagram reels to prevent disruption of video on the stories ad.
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Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. Multicultural influences and societal conditions are also crucial aspects to consider from a global perspective. Applying neuroscience tools and techniques in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field that aims to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. The primary purpose of this research was to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different types of branding advertisements. The non-advertisement exposition was also monitored during the gathering of survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module was implemented with a data analytics module to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
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Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. From a global perspective, multicultural influences and societal conditions are crucial to consider. Neuroscience applications in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field aiming to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. This research aimed to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different branding advertisements. The nonadvertisement exposition was also monitored while gathering survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module with a data analytics module was implemented to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
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Human emotions can be associated with decision-making, and emotions can generate behaviors. Due to the fact that it could be biased and exhaustively complex to examine how human beings make choices, it is necessary to consider relevant groups of study, such as stock traders and non-traders in finance. This work aims to analyze the connection between emotions and the decision-making process of investors and non-investors submitted to the same set of stimuli to understand how emotional arousal might dictate the decision process. Neuroscience monitoring tools such as Real-Time Facial Expression Analysis (AFFDEX), Eye-Tracking, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) were adopted to monitor the related experiments of this paper and its accompanying analysis process. Thirty-seven participants attended the study, 24 were classified as stock traders, and 13 were non-traders; the mean age for the groups was 35 and 25, respectively. The designed experiment initially disclosed a thought-provoking result between the two groups under the certainty and risk-seeking prospect theory; there were more risk-takers among non-investors at 75%, while investors were inclined toward certainty at 79.17%. The implication could be that the non-investing individuals were less complex in thought and therefore pursued higher returns besides a high probability of losing the game. In addition, the automatic emotion classification system indicates that when non-investors confronted a stock trending chart beyond their acquaintance or knowledge, they were psychologically exposed to fear, anger, sadness, and surprise. On the contrary, investors were detected with disgust, joy, contempt, engagement, sadness, and surprise, where sadness and surprise overlapped in both parties. Under time pressure conditions, 54.05% of investors or non-investors tend to make decisions after the peak(s) of emotional arousal. Variations were found in the deciding points of the slopes: 2.70% were decided right after the peak(s), 37.84% waited until the emotions turned stable, and 13.51% were determined as the emotional indicators started to slide downwards. Several combinations of emotional responses were associated with decisions. For example, negative emotions could induce passive decision-making, in this case, to sell the stock; nevertheless, it was also examined that as the slope slipped downwards to a particular horizontal point, the individuals became more optimistic and selected the "BUY" option. Future works may consider expanding the study to larger sample size, different demographic groups, and other biometrics for further analysis and conclusions.
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The identification of barriers for e-commerce to thrive in specific countries is a topic of great interest. This work proposes two models to study the barriers to B2C e-commerce adoption in Portugal, highlighting obstacles less exploited by previous research: the impact of offline shopping pleasure and the influence of the distance to shopping malls on online shopping intent. An online survey was conducted based on different constructs. A multivariate OLS hierarchical regression was used to analyse the proposed models regarding the intention to buy online and the number of online purchases. The results revealed that customer satisfaction is a strong predictor of intent to buy online and that perceived product risk remains a barrier to e-commerce. Consumers living in high urbanised areas have more propensity to buy online. Helpful information is provided regarding the impact of context, culture, product, and individual barriers, showing that multichannel strategies are best suited for success.
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