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There are several techniques to support simulation of time series behavior. In this chapter, the approach will be based on the Composite Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation method. This method is able to model future outcomes of time series under analysis from the available data. The establishment of multiple correlations and causality between the data allows modeling the variables and probabilistic distributions and subsequently obtaining also probabilistic results for time series forecasting. To improve the predictor efficiency, computational intelligence techniques are proposed, including a fuzzy inference system and an Artificial Neural Network architecture. This type of model is suitable to be considered not only for the disease monitoring and compartmental classes, but also for managerial data such as clinical resources, medical and health team allocation, and bed management, which are data related to complex decision-making challenges.
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The application of different tools for predicting COVID19 cases spreading has been widely considered during the pandemic. Comparing different approaches is essential to analyze performance and the practical support they can provide for the current pandemic management. This work proposes using the susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic but infectious-symptomatic and infectious-recovered-deceased (SEAIRD) model for different learning models. The first analysis considers an unsupervised prediction, based directly on the epidemiologic compartmental model. After that, two supervised learning models are considered integrating computational intelligence techniques and control engineering: the fuzzy-PID and the wavelet-ANN-PID models. The purpose is to compare different predictor strategies to validate a viable predictive control system for the COVID19 relevant epidemiologic time series. For each model, after setting the initial conditions for each parameter, the prediction performance is calculated based on the presented data. The use of PID controllers is justified to avoid divergence in the system when the learning process is conducted. The wavelet neural network solution is considered here because of its rapid convergence rate. The proposed solutions are dynamic and can be adjusted and corrected in real time, according to the output error. The results are presented in each subsection of the chapter.
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Covid-19 has hit the world unprepared, as the deadliest pandemic of the century. Governments and authorities, as leaders and decision makers fighting against the virus, enormously tap on the power of AI and its data analytics models for urgent decision supports at the greatest efforts, ever seen from human history. This book showcases a collection of important data analytics models that were used during the epidemic, and discusses and compares their efficacy and limitations. Readers who from both healthcare industries and academia can gain unique insights on how data analytics models were designed and applied on epidemic data. Taking Covid-19 as a case study, readers especially those who are working in similar fields, would be better prepared in case a new wave of virus epidemic may arise again in the near future.
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At the beginning of 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) started a coordinated global effort to counterattack the potential exponential spread of the SARS-Cov2 virus, responsible for the coronavirus disease, officially named COVID-19. This comprehensive initiative included a research roadmap published in March 2020, including nine dimensions, from epidemiological research to diagnostic tools and vaccine development. With an unprecedented case, the areas of study related to the pandemic received funds and strong attention from different research communities (universities, government, industry, etc.), resulting in an exponential increase in the number of publications and results achieved in such a small window of time. Outstanding research cooperation projects were implemented during the outbreak, and innovative technologies were developed and improved significantly. Clinical and laboratory processes were improved, while managerial personnel were supported by a countless number of models and computational tools for the decision-making process. This chapter aims to introduce an overview of this favorable scenario and highlight a necessary discussion about ethical issues in research related to the COVID-19 and the challenge of low-quality research, focusing only on the publication of techniques and approaches with limited scientific evidence or even practical application. A legacy of lessons learned from this unique period of human history should influence and guide the scientific and industrial communities for the future.
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It is argued that the role of the Chinese government to support the cross-border operations of Chinese firms is to assist these firms in overcoming their limited established brands, and their disadvantages in technology and managerial resources, which were also the reasons why such firms decided to enter emerging markets instead of developed markets. This strategic choice is preferred to avoid direct confrontation with established firms from developed countries endowed with superior ownership advantages. Therefore, Chinese resources seeking firms innovate by increasing investment in developing and emerging markets to develop unique ownership advantages for sustainable market development and competitive advantage. This research investigates the ownership advantages of resources seeking Chinese firms in these markets using the OLI theory. The paper contributes to explaining the specific advantages of Chinese MNEs when entering emerging markets. The study applied a two-stage qualitative methodology to examine Chinese firms operating in Nigeria. The first stage included an exploratory study based on interviews with key informants and experts while the second stage included a case study methodology. The study focused on resources seeking Chinese MNEs operating in Nigeria.
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Macao is well known for its gaming industry. However, there are also many traditional small-to-medium enterprises which are family-owned and run. There is no doubt that social capital is one of the key competitive advantages that family businesses possess, particularly when it comes to Chinese businesses with strong family values that emphasize the importance of trustworthiness and guanxi (relationships). As opposed to other forms of capital, social capital cannot be passed from one generation to another through the will of the incumbents. So, how is social capital passed on in family businesses from one generation to the next? Based on an in-depth study of five cases of successful family businesses in Macao, this research identified the forms of social capital present in business families and the succession process of these firms. From the generalizations drawn from the five cases, a theoretical framework is proposed to understand the intergenerational transmission of social capital in Chinese family businesses
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