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It is known that the probability is not a conserved quantity in the stock market, given the fact that it corresponds to an open system. In this paper we analyze the flow of probability in this system by expressing the ideal Black-Scholes equation in the Hamiltonian form. We then analyze how the non-conservation of probability affects the stability of the prices of the Stocks. Finally, we find the conditions under which the probability might be conserved in the market, challenging in this way the non-Hermitian nature of the Black-Scholes Hamiltonian.
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The spontaneous symmetry breaking phenomena applied to Quantum Finance considers that the martingale state in the stock market corresponds to a ground (vacuum) state if we express the financial equations in the Hamiltonian form. The original analysis for this phenomena completely ignores the kinetic terms in the neighborhood of the minimal of the potential terms. This is correct in most of the cases. However, when we deal with the martingale condition, it comes out that the kinetic terms can also behave as potential terms and then reproduce a shift on the effective location of the vacuum (martingale). In this paper, we analyze the effective symmetry breaking patterns and the connected vacuum degeneracy for these special circumstances. Within the same scenario, we analyze the connection between the flow of information and the multiplicity of martingale states, providing in this way powerful tools for analyzing the dynamic of the stock markets.
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<abstract><p>About 6.5 million people are infected with Chagas disease (CD) globally, and WHO estimates that $ > million people worldwide suffer from ChHD. Sudden cardiac death (SCD) represents one of the leading causes of death worldwide and affects approximately 65% of ChHD patients at a rate of 24 per 1000 patient-years, much greater than the SCD rate in the general population. Its occurrence in the specific context of ChHD needs to be better exploited. This paper provides the first evidence supporting the use of machine learning (ML) methods within non-invasive tests: patients' clinical data and cardiac restitution metrics (CRM) features extracted from ECG-Holter recordings as an adjunct in the SCD risk assessment in ChHD. The feature selection (FS) flows evaluated 5 different groups of attributes formed from patients' clinical and physiological data to identify relevant attributes among 57 features reported by 315 patients at HUCFF-UFRJ. The FS flow with FS techniques (variance, ANOVA, and recursive feature elimination) and Naive Bayes (NB) model achieved the best classification performance with 90.63% recall (sensitivity) and 80.55% AUC. The initial feature set is reduced to a subset of 13 features (4 Classification; 1 Treatment; 1 CRM; and 7 Heart Tests). The proposed method represents an intelligent diagnostic support system that predicts the high risk of SCD in ChHD patients and highlights the clinical and CRM data that most strongly impact the final outcome.</p></abstract>
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Over the past several decades, the dichotomy between traditional and emerging donors has been based upon the notion that emerging donors (such as China) support authoritarian regimes and use foreign aid to pursue their economic interests at the expense of the poor in the recipient countries. Accordingly, Western donors, media, and scholars portray Chinese aid as non-poverty-focused. This study aims to review and analyze whether the dichotomy between traditional and emerging donors is still relevant in the current aid system and to propose a new and rigorous criterion for recategorizing donors. In terms of methodology, this study relies on secondary data, including scholarly works on traditional and emerging donors and foreign aid policy documents. Conclusions based on the research indicate that the divide between traditional donors and (re)emerging donors is becoming more ambiguous. The literature review indicates that the two donors’ aids had a mixed impact and that their approaches were similar. This paper highlights the importance of developing different recategorization criteria depending on the impact of aid.
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It is plausible to assume that the component waves in ECG signals constitute a unique human characteristic because morphology and amplitudes of recorded beats are governed by multiple individual factors. According to the best of our knowledge, the issue of automatically classifying different ’identities’ of QRS morphology has not been explored within the literature. This work proposes five alternative mathematical models for representing different QRS morphologies providing the extraction of a set of features related to QRS shape. The technique incorporates mechanisms of combining the mathematical functions Gaussian, Mexican-Hat and Rayleigh probability density function and also a mechanism for clipping the waveform of those functions. The searching for the optimal parameters which minimize the normalized RMS error between each mathematical model and a given QRS search window enables to find an optimal model. Such modeling behaves as a robust alternative for delineating heartbeats, classifying beat morphologies, detecting subtle and anomalous changes, compression of QRS complex windows among others. The validation process evaluates the ability of each model to represent different QRS morphology classes within 159 full ECG signal records from QT database and 584 QRS search windows from MIT-BIH Arrhythmia database. From the experimental results, we rank the winning rates for which each mathematical model best models and also discriminates the most predominant QRS morphologies Rs, rS, RS, qR, qRs, R, rR’s and QS. Furthermore, the average time errors computed for QRS onset and offset locations when using the corresponding winner mathematical models for delineation purposes were, respectively, 12.87±8.5 ms and 1.47±10.06 ms.
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Consumers' selections and decision-making processes are some of the most exciting and challenging topics in neuromarketing, sales, and branding. From a global perspective, multicultural influences and societal conditions are crucial to consider. Neuroscience applications in international marketing and consumer behavior is an emergent and multidisciplinary field aiming to understand consumers' thoughts, reactions, and selection processes in branding and sales. This study focuses on real-time monitoring of different physiological signals using eye-tracking, facial expressions recognition, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) acquisition methods to analyze consumers' responses, detect emotional arousal, measure attention or relaxation levels, analyze perception, consciousness, memory, learning, motivation, preference, and decision-making. This research aimed to monitor human subjects' reactions to these signals during an experiment designed in three phases consisting of different branding advertisements. The nonadvertisement exposition was also monitored while gathering survey responses at the end of each phase. A feature extraction module with a data analytics module was implemented to calculate statistical metrics and decision-making supporting tools based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Feature Importance (FI) determination based on the Random Forest technique. The results indicate that when compared to image ads, video ads are more effective in attracting consumers' attention and creating more emotional arousal.
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Human emotions can be associated with decision-making, and emotions can generate behaviors. Due to the fact that it could be biased and exhaustively complex to examine how human beings make choices, it is necessary to consider relevant groups of study, such as stock traders and non-traders in finance. This work aims to analyze the connection between emotions and the decision-making process of investors and non-investors submitted to the same set of stimuli to understand how emotional arousal might dictate the decision process. Neuroscience monitoring tools such as Real-Time Facial Expression Analysis (AFFDEX), Eye-Tracking, and Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) were adopted to monitor the related experiments of this paper and its accompanying analysis process. Thirty-seven participants attended the study, 24 were classified as stock traders, and 13 were non-traders; the mean age for the groups was 35 and 25, respectively. The designed experiment initially disclosed a thought-provoking result between the two groups under the certainty and risk-seeking prospect theory; there were more risk-takers among non-investors at 75%, while investors were inclined toward certainty at 79.17%. The implication could be that the non-investing individuals were less complex in thought and therefore pursued higher returns besides a high probability of losing the game. In addition, the automatic emotion classification system indicates that when non-investors confronted a stock trending chart beyond their acquaintance or knowledge, they were psychologically exposed to fear, anger, sadness, and surprise. On the contrary, investors were detected with disgust, joy, contempt, engagement, sadness, and surprise, where sadness and surprise overlapped in both parties. Under time pressure conditions, 54.05% of investors or non-investors tend to make decisions after the peak(s) of emotional arousal. Variations were found in the deciding points of the slopes: 2.70% were decided right after the peak(s), 37.84% waited until the emotions turned stable, and 13.51% were determined as the emotional indicators started to slide downwards. Several combinations of emotional responses were associated with decisions. For example, negative emotions could induce passive decision-making, in this case, to sell the stock; nevertheless, it was also examined that as the slope slipped downwards to a particular horizontal point, the individuals became more optimistic and selected the "BUY" option. Future works may consider expanding the study to larger sample size, different demographic groups, and other biometrics for further analysis and conclusions.
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Quality of life in general population before and during pandemic is topic need to be address by researcher in terms of mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression. The study was carried out among Saudi population. Data were collected from general population using questionnaire during the period from 22 August 2021 to 10th January 2022. As a result, total 214 participants have included in this study. Among them prevalent age group include 40 years (n= 63, 29.4%) shadowed by the age group 25-35 (n= 61, 28.5%) while above 60 years group were least frequent (n= 1, 0.5%). On questioning the applicants whether they were satisfied with their health and how would they rate their quality of life, their answers were as follows: yes, or satisfied (n= 86, 40.2%), very Satisfied (n= 102, 47.7%) Dissatisfied (n= 11, 5.1%) and neither satisfied nor dissatisfied (n= 15, 7%). Due to pandemic, they were rate quality of life very good (n= 94, 43.9%), good (n= 63, 29.4 %) poor (n= 5, 2.3 %) and neither good and nor poor (n= 52, 24.3 %). During pandemic 96 participants feel no change in their weight but 110 participants respond that there is increase in coffee intake during the pandemic. Similarly increased in smoking habits and decrease rate in social activities (n=119,41.4%). The psychosomatic well-being of people has been interrupted by disturbing their social activities during pandemic.
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The extent of citizens' trust in government determines the success or failure of e-government initiatives. Nevertheless, the idiosyncrasies of the concept and the broad spectrum of its approach still present relevant challenges. This work presents a systematic literature review on e-government trust while elaborating and summarizing a conceptual analysis of trust, introducing evaluation methods for government trust, and compiling relevant research on e-government trust and intentional behavior. A total of 26 key factors that constitute trust have been identified and classified into six categories: Government trust, Trust in Internet and technology (TiIT), Trust in e-government (TiEG), Personal Beliefs, Trustworthiness, and Trust of intermediary (ToI). The value added of this work consists of developing a conceptual framework of TiEG to provide a significant reference for future in-depth studies and research on e-government trust.
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The use of learning analytics (LA) in real-world educational applications is growing very fast as academic institutions realize the positive potential that is possible if LA is integrated in decision making. Education in schools on public health need to evolve in response to the new knowledge and th...
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Crowdsensing exploits the sensing abilities offered by smart phones and users' mobility. Users can mutually help each other as a community with the aid of crowdsensing. The potential of crowdsensing has yet to be fully realized for improving public health. A protocol based on gamification to encoura...
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Corporate leaders are constantly dealing with stress in parallel with continuous decision-making processes. The impact of acute stress on decision-making activities is a relevant area of study to evaluate the impact of the decisions made, and create tools and mechanisms to cope with the inevitable exposure to stress and better manage its impact. The intersection of leadership and neurosciences techniques is called Neuroleadership. In this work, an experiment is proposed to detect and measure the emotional arousal of two groups of business professionals, divided into two groups. The first one is the intervention/stress group, n=30, exposed to stressful conditions, and the control group, n=14, not exposed to stress. The participants are submitted to a sequence of computerized stimuli, such as watching videos, answering survey questions, and making decisions in a realistic office environment. The Galvanic Skin Response (GSR) biosensor monitors emotional arousal in real-time. The experiment design implemented stressors such as visual effects, defacement, unfairness, and time-constraint for the intervention group, followed by decision-making tasks. The results indicate that emotional arousal was statistically significantly higher for the intervention/stress group, considering Shapiro and Mann-Whitney tests. The work indicates that GSR is a reliable stress detector and may be useful to predict negative impacts on executive professionals during decision-making activities.
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The adoption of IoT for smart health applications is a relevant tool for distributed and intelligent automatic diagnostic systems. This work proposes the development of an integrated solution to monitor maternal and fetal signals for high-risk pregnancies based on IoT sensors, feature extraction based on data analytics, and an intelligent diagnostic aid system based on a 1-D convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. The fetal heart rate and a group of maternal clinical indicators, such as the uterine tonus activity, blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, and oxygen saturation are monitored. Multiple data sources generate a significant amount of data in different formats and rates. An emergency diagnostic subsystem is proposed based on a fog computing layer and the best accuracy was 92.59% for both maternal and fetal emergency. A smart health analytics system is proposed for multiple feature extraction and the calculation of linear and nonlinear measures. Finally, a classification technique is proposed as a prediction system for maternal, fetal, and simultaneous health status classification, considering six possible outputs. Different classifiers are evaluated and a proposed CNN presented the best results, with the F1-score ranging from 0.74 to 0.91. The results are validated based on the diagnosis provided by two specialists. The results show that the proposed system is a viable solution for maternal and fetal ambulatory monitoring based on IoT.
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The adoption of project management techniques is a crucial decision for corporate governance in construction companies since the management of areas such as risk, cost, and communications is essential for the success or failure of an endeavor. Nevertheless, different frameworks based on traditional or agile methodologies are available with several approaches, which may create several ways to manage projects. The primary purpose of this work is to investigate the adequate project management methodology for the construction industry from a general perspective and consider a case study from Macau. The methodology considered semi-structured interviews and a survey comparing international and local project managers from the construction industry. The interviews indicate that most construction project managers still follow empirical methods with no specific methodology but consider the adoption of traditional waterfall approaches. In contrast, according to the survey, most project managers and construction managers agree that the project's efficacy needs to increase, namely in planning, waste minimization, communication increase, and focus on the Client's feedback. In addition, there seems to be a clear indication that agile methodology could be implemented in several types of projects, including hospitality development projects. A hybrid development approach based on the Waterfall and Agile methodologies as a tool for the project management area may provide a more suitable methodology for project managers to follow.
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Background and objective Intrauterine Growth Restriction (IUGR) is a condition in which a fetus does not grow to the expected weight during pregnancy. There are several well documented causes in the literature for this issue, such as maternal disorder, and genetic influences. Nevertheless, besides the risk during pregnancy and labour periods, in a long term perspective, the impact of IUGR condition during the child development is an area of research itself. The main objective of this work is to propose a machine learning solution to identify the most significant features of importance based on physiological, clinical or socioeconomic factors correlated with previous IUGR condition after 10 years of birth. Methods In this work, 41 IUGR (18 male) and 34 Non-IUGR (22 male) children were followed up 9 years after the birth, in average (9.1786 ± 0.6784 years old). A group of machine learning algorithms is proposed to classify children previously identified as born under IUGR condition based on 24-hours monitoring of ECG (Holter) and blood pressure (ABPM), and other clinical and socioeconomic attributes. In additional, an algorithm of relevance determination based on the classifier is also proposed, to determine the level of importance of the considered features. Results The proposed classification solution achieved accuracy up to 94.73%, and better performance than seven state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Also, relevant latent factors related to HRV and BP monitoring are proposed, such as: day-time heart rate (day-time HR), day-night systolic blood pressure (day-night SBP), 24-hour standard deviation (SD) of SBP, dropped, morning cortisol creatinine, 24-hour mean of SDs of all NN intervals for each 5 minutes segment (24-hour SDNNi), among others. Conclusion With outstanding accuracy of our proposed solutions, the classification system and the indication of relevant attributes may support medical teams on the clinical monitoring of IUGR children during their childhood development.
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Objective: This study highlights the potential of an Electrocardiogram (ECG) as a powerful tool for early diagnosis of COVID-19 in critically ill patients with limited access to CT–Scan rooms. Methods: In this investigation, 3 categories of patient status were considered: Low, Moderate, and Severe. For each patient, 2 different body positions have been used to collect 2 ECG signals. Then, from each collected signal, 10 non-linear features (Energy, Approximate Entropy, Logarithmic Entropy, Shannon Entropy, Hurst Exponent, Lyapunov Exponent, Higuchi Fractal Dimension, Katz Fractal Dimension, Correlation Dimension and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis) were extracted every 1s ECG time-series length to serve as entries for 19 Machine learning classifiers within a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Four different classification scenarios were tested: Low vs. Moderate, Low vs. Severe, Moderate vs. Severe and one Multi-class comparison (All vs. All). Results: The classification report results were: (1) Low vs. Moderate - 100% of Accuracy and 100% of F1–Score; (2) Low vs. Severe - Accuracy of 91.67% and an F1–Score of 94.92%; (3) Moderate vs. Severe - Accuracy of 94.12% and an F1–Score of 96.43%; and (4) All vs All - 78.57% of Accuracy and 84.75% of F1–Score. Conclusion: The results indicate that the applied methodology could be considered a good tool for distinguishing COVID-19’s different severity stages using ECG signals. Significance: The findings highlight the potential of ECG as a fast and effective tool for COVID-19 examination. In comparison to previous studies using the same database, this study shows a 7.57% improvement in diagnostic accuracy for the All vs All comparison.
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Since the beginning of 2020, Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) has attracted the attention of the World Health Organization (WHO). This paper looks into the infection mechanism, patient symptoms, and laboratory diagnosis, followed by an extensive assessment of different technologies and computerized models (based on Electrocardiographic signals (ECG), Voice, and X-ray techniques) proposed as a diagnostic tool for the accurate detection of COVID-19. The found papers showed high accuracy rate results, ranging between 85.70% and 100%, and F1-Scores from 89.52% to 100%. With this state-of-the-art, we concluded that the models proposed for the detection of COVID-19 already have significant results, but the area still has room for improvement, given the vast symptomatology and the better comprehension of individuals’ evolution of the disease.