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This paper is motivated by two observations in the large civil aircraft (LCA) industry. (1) Boeing and Airbus are significantly different in the degree of offshoring. (2) The degree of offshoring also changes among different aircraft models. To offer an explanation, this paper focuses on issues related to fragmentation. Existing literature has established the tie between fragmented technology and offshoring. However, it is assumed that production can be fragmented readily and at no cost; and only exogenous global economic factors have impact on the degree of fragmentation. This model distinguishes itself from others by incorporating endogeneity in fragmentation. A final-good firm can spend on R&D specifically for its own fragmented technology. As a result, the final-good firm can optimally choose the portion of components to be offshored. A strategic trade policy model is used to show that the degree of offshoring depends on the firm's own cost of production, the host country's cost of production, the global state of technology as well as the government trade policies. In particular, export subsidy and subsidy on R&D of fragmented technology are shown to be policy substitutes. Keywords: Fragmentation; Offshoring; Outsourcing; Aircraft; Export subsidy; R&D subsidy; Boeing; Airbus JEL classification: F12; F13; F23; L13
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The degree of economic integration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA), as reflected in the mobility of trade and capital flows, has been strengthened by free trade agreements, but obstacles including border effects, capital controls, differences of exchange rate systems and inadequate cross-regional coordination remain. Digital renminbi (e-CNY) has been tested in Shenzhen, a core GBA city since April 2020. If e-CNY is adopted in the GBA, the area will effectively become a single currency zone. Whether the GBA constitutes an “optimum currency area” (OCA) depends on its degree of economic integration. This paper computes real interest rate differential (RID), uncovered interest rate differential (UID) and deviation from purchasing power parity (PPD) of each regional pair based on data of interest rates, exchange rates and price indexes from 2016M2 to 2022M7. All UID, PPD and RID series have means within about 1 percent point from 0, indicating high degrees of financial integration, real integration and economic integration. With the exception of Guangdong-Macau RID, all series are stationary, implying mean-reverting behavior. Hence, the parities are expected to hold both in the short run and in the long run, which is a condition for an OCA in the GBA. Furthermore, the regression analysis finds that the test launch of e-CNY in Shenzhen (adjusted for the COVID-19 outbreak) has significant impacts on all RIDs, Guangdong-Macau PPD and Hong Kong-Macau PPD. With merely two and a half years of test launch, the introduction of e-CNY already had impacts on overall economic integration in the GBA.
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The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) was first conceptualized in 2016, which aimed to facilitate trade and finance liberalization among the three regions. The trade and financial environment of the GBA is unique. Due to the “one country, two systems” principle, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be trading partners bounded by WTO rule, but bilateral free trade agreements have been signed between Mainland China and Hong Kong, and between Mainland China and Macau, but not between Hong Kong and Macau. Furthermore, each of the three regions circulates a local currency subject to its own exchange rate policy, with Hong Kong Dollar and Macau Pataca currently pegged to the US Dollar. These affect the mobility of trade and capital flows in the area. Hence, this paper applies the widely-used price-based approach due to Cheung et al. [5] to analyze the degrees of real and financial integration in the GBA based on interest rates, exchange rates, and price indexes data from January, 2016 to November, 2021. The real interest differential (RID), uncovered interest differential (UID) and the deviation from purchasing power parity (PPD) between each regional pair have means that are statistically and economically close to zero, implying high real and financial integration in the GBA. The unit root tests for stationarity also confirm that the time series are mean-reverting, so the economic integration in the GBA in the long run is foreseeable.
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Association Rule Mining by Aprior method has been one of the popular data mining techniques for decades, where knowledge in the form of item-association rules is harvested from a dataset. The quality of item-association rules nevertheless depends on the concentration of frequent items from the input dataset. When the dataset becomes large, the items are scattered far apart. It is known from previous literature that clustering helps produce some data groups which are concentrated with frequent items. Among all the data clusters generated by a clustering algorithm, there must be one or more clusters which contain suitable and frequent items. In turn, the association rules that are mined from such clusters would be assured of better qualities in terms of high confidence than those mined from the whole dataset. However, it is not known in advance which cluster is the suitable one until all the clusters are tried by association rule mining. It is time consuming if they were to be tested by brute-force. In this paper, a statistical property called prior probability is investigated with respect to selecting the best out of many clusters by a clustering algorithm as a pre-processing step before association rule mining. Experiment results indicate that there is correlation between prior probability of the best cluster and the relatively high quality of association rules generated from that cluster. The results are significant as it is possible to know which cluster should be best used for association rule mining instead of testing them all out exhaustively.
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Stock price prediction has always been challenging due to its volatility and unpredictability. This paper performs a preliminary exploratory comparison that utilizes Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms to forecast the stock market in Hong Kong. It considers a public dataset publicly available and uses feature engineering to extract relevant features. Then, LSTM and SVM algorithms are applied to predict stock prices. Our results show that the proposed machine learning techniques can predict stock prices in Hong Kong's share market with the error metrics presented, and, for this purpose, LSTM achieved better results than SVM, with MSE = 0.0026, RMSE = 0.0508, MAE = 0.0406, and MAPE = 1.325.
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This paper introduces a concept proposal for accessing driving behavior in public transportation through Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS), as part of a long-term research project on Advanced Public Transportation System (APTS). The proposed concept makes use of mobile device's accelerometer and passengers' qualitative evaluation to identify aggressive driving behavior, which is believed to be a major factor for unnecessary accidents and fuel consumption. A survey and comparison of IT services (mobile applications and websites) provided by Macau Government and private bus companies in Macau, regarding bus-related information, such as fares, routes and route diversions is also provided.
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Investor sentiment and emotions have a strong impact on financial markets. In recent years there has been increasing interest in analyzing the sentiment of investors for stock price prediction using machine learning. Existing prediction models mostly depend on the analysis of trading data and company profit. few prediction theories have been built based on individual investors' sentiments. The fundamental reason is the difficulty to measure individual investors' sentiment.
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Sentiment analysis technologies have a strong impact on financial markets. In recent years there has been increasing interest in analyzing the sentiment of investors. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the current state of the art and synthesize the published literature related to the financial sentiment analysis, especially in investor sentiment for prediction of stock price. Starting from this overview the paper provides answers to the questions about how and to what extent research on investor sentiment analysis and stock price trend forecasting in the financial markets has developed and which tools are used for these purposes remains largely unexplored. This paper represents the comprehensive literature-based study on the fields of the investors sentiment analytics and machine learning applied to analyzing the sentiment of investors and its influencing stock market and predicting stock price.
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One of the biggest challenges that we have encountered, when trying to encourage digital games in schools, is trying to explain what its benefits are in teaching and learning environments. In this pilot experimental study we explore how multimodal audio and visual games can be used in learning environments for children, specifically by fostering creative behaviors through User-Centered design approaches. To achieve this objective, a framework is being developed with multimodal experiences based on flexible design patterns that exploits basic visual and audio elements, allowing children from three to six years of age to play and learn through fun and subsequently trigger creative behaviors. These studies are making use of tangible objects, digital games and mobile platforms. We are making use of commercial digital games to understand and discuss the affordances of these games in an educational environment and how they support creativity in learning. (Fig.1)
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Nowadays, contemporary art practices have been expanding into fields outside their own borders. According to Claire Bishop (2012), this expanded field of post-studio practices currently goes under a variety of names: socially engaged art, community-based art, experimental communities, dialogic art, littoral art, interventionist art, participatory art, collaborative art, contextual art and (most recently) social practice. By engaging, artists nurture the sense of belonging and search for an identity of the place they inhabit. In Hong Kong and Macao, as well as in the Pearl River Delta and China in general, the speed of urban transformation is forcing artists to reconsider their participation in the city in order to develop a creative place making process that is according to the new identity of the place. By doing so, they are also included in what has been defined as “creative industries” that tries to build a new image of the urban fabric. Linked with this sort of collective attitude, there is also an attempt to find a sense of local identity that has been disappearing in the face of these major developments. Engaging with the city and the communities may constitute, therefore, a challenge for the young generation, especially in hybrid places such as Hong Kong and Macao, where artists find themselves in an effort to understand the core values of their fragmented identity. In this paper we will analyze some projects that artists are doing in both SAR´s, in order to create a sense of place in this state of transition.
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Crime fiction in China emerged in the 1890s in translations of Western works, and evolved from the mere imitation of Western crime fiction to becoming an autonomous literary genre. Despite fluctuations in popularity, the genre of Chinese crime fiction, the plots of which are based on true cases, has retained a reasonably constant presence on the literary scene, and has captured the popular imagination in contemporary China and, more recently, across the world. After the demise of Mao, under whose governance the genre was banned, the government of the early Deng regime began to favor so-called “legal system literature” (fazhi wenxue), and aimed to use it to propagate moral principles and maintain political control in opposition to writers who strived for independence and originality. Since the mid and late 1980s, which were considered the heyday of Chinese crime fiction, and the expansion of the legal system and legal institutions, crime fiction has served to illuminate the role of law and to display new social perceptions. To investigate these attitudes, I focus on works of contemporary Chinese crime fiction by arguing that they are expressions of a confluence of cultural exchange and new trends. Several factors may have contributed to such a change, from the impact of the cinema and television serials in China to the celebrity status of Chinese detectives, lawyers and judges both as crime solvers and writers in the Chinese mainland and amongst the Chinese writing diaspora. An important finding is that besides giving detailed descriptions of legal procedures, all of the works studied have clearly shifted away from the traditional formula of Chinese crime fiction, that is, of the quest of a hero for justice, punishment, and revenge, to focus on the process of solving crime and the rendering of justice through legal processes. It seems that crime fiction is becoming crucial in conveying a new understanding of citizen’s rights in an attempt to fit into ongoing contemporary debates on universalistic notions of justice and the competence of legal institutions to provide justice to increasingly marginalized sectors of contemporary China.
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This paper starts to address the affect and side-effects of social media on people’s live in a pure contemplation perspective. Social networks are revised and some issues regarding its impact on education was not forgotten such as the teacher role in the digital classroom, formal versus informal learning or Web 2.0 tools use. Since Moodle is the first Learning Management System whilst Facebook is the first social network in the world, a survey was accomplished with two independent classes of e-business students at University of Saint Joseph, Macao, China, on their attitudes toward both online services in a learning framework. In general, the results confirms to a certain extent others previous studies on the question of whether using Facebook as an educational tool is more effective than Moodle.
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Neuromarketing lies at the intersection of three main disciplines: psychology, neuroscience, and marketing, and it has been a successful neuroscientific approach for the study of real-life choices such as consumer behavior [1]. A current gap in the cosmetics field is the lack of published research studies, considering the marketing investment done yearly in this category. With the rapid economic expansion and the rise of social media in China, consumers' interest in beauty is growing. Even though the Chinese cosmetics sector is rapidly expanding, no studies have been done with Chinese consumers. This study aims to employ the same approach as previously done in consumer neuroscience studies to evaluate cosmetic brands' marketing strategy to understand better if immediate emotional responses can be measured using Electrodermal Activity (EDA). Here, we focus on cosmetics products advertisement as a model to understand consumer preference formation and choice. Eighteen Chinese female consumers were recruited between 19 and 37 years old. From the results obtained, it was understood that none of the participants have voted for the product advertisement for which they showed higher emotional arousal. However, it appears that the participants' preference is for the products for which the brand awareness is stronger since the product advertisements with more votes are the ones for the Korean brand used. The product advertisements with Asian faces were the ones with more votes, suggesting that Asian faces have engaged consumer preference. However, the product advertisements for the Brazilian brands, unknown to the Chinese public, were the ones with fewer votes, although, those product advertisements were the ones with more emotional arousal per minute. Those advertisements were also those with non-Asian faces, suggesting that this feature influenced voting decisions. From this study, it has been observed that Electrodermal Activity is a measure of emotional arousal that by itself cannot be translated into consumer engagement. Therefore, it is also proposed to evaluate brand awareness in future studies related to product advertisements. The physical features of the people included in the advertisements is also suggested to be further evaluated in future studies since a different cultural background seems to influence the consumers' engagement. Furthermore, using EDA to complement other neurophysiological tools like facial expression analysis is also suggested for future studies to have evidence about the nature of the emotions raised.
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It has been proven in numerous research that mindfulness can be helpful to reduce stress and chronic pain (Hall, 2014; Lindström, n.d.; Tong et al., 2015). While interactive mindfulness has been one of the focuses in the recent mobile applications market, usually tackling three essential human senses: audio, visual, and touch, each mobile application has quite some different approaches in terms of interactivity. Some focus on the touch and visual, and some on audio (environmental sounds or instructing meditation). Immersing oneself in virtual reality (VR) creates a constant stream of interactivity. Nonetheless, what are the conditions for an (in)tangible virtual reality to be more effective? Under the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown since the end of 2019, Macao has been facing a social concern that we cannot travel easily to visit our decedents’ graves abroad, let alone the existing concerns of expensive burial services, lack of space, and alternative burial options. Also, taking into consideration that standard funeral service in Macao is often too brief, and getting briefer, thus lacking the opportunity to properly farewell the decedent, this research is proposing a virtual reality 3D model construction of the Chapel of St. Michael, located in St. Michael the Archangel Cemetery in Macao, to be streamed on a 360 virtual tour platform, Kuula. co. By immersing in this virtual reality, the participant is to have a single user experience for mindfulness with the decedent. To ensure valid and reliable results that address the research aims and objectives, a single-user experiment is going to be set up with multiple electronic devices, namely, the smartphone iPhone X with cardboard VR, the tablet iPad Pro, and the Oculus Quest 2. The methodology to collect the data will be using observation and simulation. The experiment will be started with an introduction to the project and conducted with no instruction, allowing users to explore and examine all features in this immersive experience. Along with a post-experience survey (interview + questionnaire), we seek its conditions and impacts on Macao residents in terms of interactive mindfulness and participants’ expectation of testing, for the first time in Macao, a virtual reality grave mourning experience.
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Virtual reality, a computer-generated 3D environment, allows one to navigate and possibly interact, resulting in real-time simulation of one or more of the user’s five senses (Gutierrez et al., 2008; Vince, 2004). Virtual tours and places have swiftly become popular in education, professional training, arts, exhibitions, and medication and rehabilitation. The empirical studies derived from the PhD thesis research aim to identify the conditions for Macao’s single-user experience to achieve mindfulness in virtual reality through immersion and interactivity.
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(Un)Directed Reading is an interactive installation (Edmonds, 2010) initially derived from the “Directed Reading” course, which all undergraduate students at the University must take during their final year. In this course, students are assigned different writing exercises and research assignments to open their creative and constructive minds in writing (EdwardsGroves, 2012; McVey, 2008). Every year, at the end of the course and after a selection process, a collection of stories is uploaded to a database of original stories. We then developed an open-source application to print a receipt ticket from a thermal printer with a randomly picked story every time a user pushes a button. An arcade game-style button is installed on a kiosk designed in collaboration with students and set on the university's campus (left photo). The printed receipt presents a short extract of one of the stories and a QR code that links to the full story decorated with illustrations. In a modern society where most of our interactions are audiovisual-based, young generations are less and less encouraged to read and even less to write. By offering a simple kiosk installation with short stories and graphical illustrations, we propose a new interactive interface that can easily engage passers-by to eventually stimulate their reading and creativity. By reading these stories, students, professors, staff, and visitors can be surprised by the talent of our students, as it stimulates students to write new pieces to be selected. The interactive kiosk was accessible to all for a period of 3 months with 23 stories during which we automatically collected some data to use in quantitative analysis. In this first run, we focused on data from the user's interactions such as story printed, story read, date and time. It allowed us to see the ratio between the printed receipt and the actual online reading of a story and more.