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In this chapter, a mathematical model explaining generically the propagation of a pandemic is proposed, helping in this way to identify the fundamental parameters related to the outbreak in general. Three free parameters for the pandemic are identified, which can be finally reduced to only two independent parameters. The model is inspired in the concept of spontaneous symmetry breaking, used normally in quantum field theory, and it provides the possibility of analyzing the complex data of the pandemic in a compact way. Data from 12 different countries are considered and the results presented. The application of nonlinear quantum physics equations to model epidemiologic time series is an innovative and promising approach.

Following the World Health Organization proclaims a pandemic due to a disease that originated in China and advances rapidly across the globe, studies to predict the behavior of epidemics have become increasingly popular, mainly related to COVID-19. The critical point of these studies is to discuss the disease's behavior and the progression of the virus's natural course. However, the prediction of the actual number of infected people has proved to be a difficult task, due to a wide range of factors, such as mass testing, social isolation, underreporting of cases, among others. Therefore, the objective of this work is to understand the behavior of COVID-19 in the state of Ceará to forecast the total number of infected people and to aid in government decisions to control the outbreak of the virus and minimize social impacts and economics caused by the pandemic. So, to understand the behavior of COVID-19, this work discusses some forecast techniques using machine learning, logistic regression, filters, and epidemiologic models. Also, this work brings a new approach to the problem, bringing together data from Ceará with those from China, generating a hybrid dataset, and providing promising results. Finally, this work still compares the different approaches and techniques presented, opening opportunities for future discussions on the topic. The study obtains predictions with R2 score of 0.99 to short-term predictions and 0.93 to long-term predictions.

The use of computational tools for medical image processing are promising tools to effectively detect COVID-19 as an alternative to expensive and time-consuming RT-PCR tests. For this specific task, CXR (Chest X-Ray) and CCT (Chest CT Scans) are the most common examinations to support diagnosis through radiology analysis. With these images, it is possible to support diagnosis and determine the disease’s severity stage. Computerized COVID-19 quantification and evaluation require an efficient segmentation process. Essential tasks for automatic segmentation tools are precisely identifying the lungs, lobes, bronchopulmonary segments, and infected regions or lesions. Segmented areas can provide handcrafted or self-learned diagnostic criteria for various applications. This Chapter presents different techniques applied for Chest CT Scans segmentation, considering the state of the art of UNet networks to segment COVID-19 CT scans and a segmentation experiment for network evaluation. Along 200 epochs, a dice coefficient of 0.83 was obtained.

COVID-19 is a respiratory disorder caused by CoronaVirus and SARS (SARS-CoV2). WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic in March 2020 and several nations’ healthcare systems were on the verge of collapsing. With that, became crucial to screen COVID-19-positive patients to maximize limited resources. NAATs and antigen tests are utilized to diagnose COVID-19 infections. NAATs reliably detect SARS-CoV-2 and seldom produce false-negative results. Because of its specificity and sensitivity, RT-PCR can be considered the gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis. This test’s complex gear is pricey and time-consuming, using skilled specialists to collect throat or nasal mucus samples. These tests require laboratory facilities and a machine for detection and analysis. Deep learning networks have been used for feature extraction and classification of Chest CT-Scan images and as an innovative detection approach in clinical practice. Because of COVID-19 CT scans’ medical characteristics, the lesions are widely spread and display a range of local aspects. Using deep learning to diagnose directly is difficult. In COVID-19, a Transformer and Convolutional Neural Network module are presented to extract local and global information from CT images. This chapter explains transfer learning, considering VGG-16 network, in CT examinations and compares convolutional networks with Vision Transformers (ViT). Vit usage increased VGG-16 network F1-score to 0.94.

This chapter describes an AUTO-ML strategy to detect COVID on chest X-rays utilizing Transfer Learning feature extraction and the AutoML TPOT framework in order to identify lung illnesses (such as COVID or pneumonia). MobileNet is a lightweight network that uses depthwise separable convolution to deepen the network while decreasing parameters and computation. AutoML is a revolutionary concept of automated machine learning (AML) that automates the process of building an ML pipeline inside a constrained computing framework. The term “AutoML” can mean a number of different things depending on context. AutoML has risen to prominence in both the business world and the academic community thanks to the ever-increasing capabilities of modern computers. Python Optimised ML Pipeline (TPOT) is a Python-based ML tool that optimizes pipeline efficiency via genetic programming. We use TPOT builds models for extracted MobileNet network features from COVID-19 image data. The f1-score of 0.79 classifies Normal, Viral Pneumonia, and Lung Opacity.

Continuous cardiac monitoring has been increasingly adopted to prevent heart diseases, especially the case of Chagas disease, a chronic condition that can degrade the heart condition, leading to sudden cardiac death. Unfortunately, a common challenge for these systems is the low-quality and high level of noise in ECG signal collection. Also, generic techniques to assess the ECG quality can discard useful information in these so-called chagasic ECG signals. To mitigate this issue, this work proposes a 1D CNN network to assess the quality of the ECG signal for chagasic patients and compare it to the state of art techniques. Segments of 10 s were extracted from 200 1-lead ECG Holter signals. Different feature extractions were considered such as morphological fiducial points, interval duration, and statistical features, aiming to classify 400 segments into four signal quality types: Acceptable ECG, Non-ECG, Wandering Baseline (WB), and AC Interference (ACI) segments. The proposed CNN architecture achieves a $$0.90 \pm 0.02$$accuracy in the multi-classification experiment and also $$0.94 \pm 0.01$$when considering only acceptable ECG against the other three classes. Also, we presented a complementary experiment showing that, after removing noisy segments, we improved morphological recognition (based on QRS wave) by 33% of the entire ECG data. The proposed noise detector may be applied as a useful tool for pre-processing chagasic ECG signals.

The gold standard to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection considers testing methods based on Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Still, the time necessary to confirm patient infection can be lengthy, and the process is expensive. In parallel, X-Ray and CT scans play an important role in the diagnosis and treatment processes. Hence, a trusted automated technique for identifying and quantifying the infected lung regions would be advantageous. Chest X-rays are two-dimensional images of the patient’s chest and provide lung morphological information and other characteristics, like ground-glass opacities (GGO), horizontal linear opacities, or consolidations, which are typical characteristics of pneumonia caused by COVID-19. This chapter presents an AI-based system using multiple Transfer Learning models for COVID-19 classification using Chest X-Rays. In our experimental design, all the classifiers demonstrated satisfactory accuracy, precision, recall, and specificity performance. On the one hand, the Mobilenet architecture outperformed the other CNNs, achieving excellent results for the evaluated metrics. On the other hand, Squeezenet presented a regular result in terms of recall. In medical diagnosis, false negatives can be particularly harmful because a false negative can lead to patients being incorrectly diagnosed as healthy. These results suggest that our Deep Learning classifiers can accurately classify X-ray exams as normal or indicative of COVID-19 with high confidence.

The gold standard to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection consider testing methods based on Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Still, the time necessary to confirm patient infection can be lengthy, and the process is expensive. On the other hand, X-Ray and CT scans play a vital role in the auxiliary diagnosis process. Hence, a trusted automated technique for identifying and quantifying the infected lung regions would be advantageous. Chest X-rays are two-dimensional images of the patient’s chest and provide lung morphological information and other characteristics, like ground-glass opacities (GGO), horizontal linear opacities, or consolidations, which are characteristics of pneumonia caused by COVID-19. But before the computerized diagnostic support system can classify a medical image, a segmentation task should usually be performed to identify relevant areas to be analyzed and reduce the risk of noise and misinterpretation caused by other structures eventually present in the images. This chapter presents an AI-based system for lung segmentation in X-ray images using a U-net CNN model. The system’s performance was evaluated using metrics such as cross-entropy, dice coefficient, and Mean IoU on unseen data. Our study divided the data into training and evaluation sets using an 80/20 train-test split method. The training set was used to train the model, and the evaluation test set was used to evaluate the performance of the trained model. The results of the evaluation showed that the model achieved a Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) of 95%, Cross entropy of 97%, and Mean IoU of 86%.

The Covid-19 pandemic evidenced the need Computer Aided Diagnostic Systems to analyze medical images, such as CT and MRI scans and X-rays, to assist specialists in disease diagnosis. CAD systems have been shown to be effective at detecting COVID-19 in chest X-ray and CT images, with some studies reporting high levels of accuracy and sensitivity. Moreover, it can also detect some diseases in patients who may not have symptoms, preventing the spread of the virus. There are some types of CAD systems, such as Machine and Deep Learning-based and Transfer learning-based. This chapter proposes a pipeline for feature extraction and classification of Covid-19 in X-ray images using transfer learning for feature extraction with VGG-16 CNN and machine learning classifiers. Five classifiers were evaluated: Accuracy, Specificity, Sensitivity, Geometric mean, and Area under the curve. The SVM Classifier presented the best performance metrics for Covid-19 classification, achieving 90% accuracy, 97.5% of Specificity, 82.5% of Sensitivity, 89.6% of Geometric mean, and 90% for the AUC metric. On the other hand, the Nearest Centroid (NC) classifier presented poor sensitivity and geometric mean results, achieving 33.9% and 54.07%, respectively.

A significant number of people infected by COVID19 do not get sick immediately but become carriers of the disease. These patients might have a certain incubation period. However, the classical compartmental model, SEIR, was not originally designed for COVID19. We used the simple, commonly used SEIR model to retrospectively analyse the initial pandemic data from Singapore. Here, the SEIR model was combined with the actual published Singapore pandemic data, and the key parameters were determined by maximizing the nonlinear goodness of fit R2 and minimizing the root mean square error. These parameters served for the fast and directional convergence of the parameters of an improved model. To cover the quarantine and asymptomatic variables, the existing SEIR model was extended to an infectious disease model with a greater number of population compartments, and with parameter values that were tuned adaptively by solving the nonlinear dynamics equations over the available pandemic data, as well as referring to previous experience with SARS. The contribution presented in this paper is a new model called the adaptive SEAIRD model; it considers the new characteristics of COVID19 and is therefore applicable to a population including asymptomatic carriers. The predictive value is enhanced by tuning of the optimal parameters, whose values better reflect the current pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic spread generated an urgent need for computational systems to model its behavior and support governments and healthcare teams to make proper decisions. There are not many cases of global pandemics in history, and the most recent one has unique characteristics, which are tightly connected to the current society’s lifestyle and beliefs, creating an environment of uncertainty. Because of that, the development of mathematical/computational models to forecast the pandemic behavior since its beginning, i.e., with a restricted amount of data collected, is necessary. This chapter focuses on the analysis of different data mining techniques to allow the pandemic prediction with a small amount of data. A case study is presented considering the data from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus was first detected, and the place where the major outbreak occurred. The PNN + CF method (Polynomial Neural Network with Corrective Feedback) is presented as the technique with the best prediction performance. This is a promising method that might be considered in future eventual waves of the current pandemic or event to have a suitable model for future epidemic outbreaks around the world.

There are several techniques to support simulation of time series behavior. In this chapter, the approach will be based on the Composite Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation method. This method is able to model future outcomes of time series under analysis from the available data. The establishment of multiple correlations and causality between the data allows modeling the variables and probabilistic distributions and subsequently obtaining also probabilistic results for time series forecasting. To improve the predictor efficiency, computational intelligence techniques are proposed, including a fuzzy inference system and an Artificial Neural Network architecture. This type of model is suitable to be considered not only for the disease monitoring and compartmental classes, but also for managerial data such as clinical resources, medical and health team allocation, and bed management, which are data related to complex decision-making challenges.

The application of different tools for predicting COVID19 cases spreading has been widely considered during the pandemic. Comparing different approaches is essential to analyze performance and the practical support they can provide for the current pandemic management. This work proposes using the susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic but infectious-symptomatic and infectious-recovered-deceased (SEAIRD) model for different learning models. The first analysis considers an unsupervised prediction, based directly on the epidemiologic compartmental model. After that, two supervised learning models are considered integrating computational intelligence techniques and control engineering: the fuzzy-PID and the wavelet-ANN-PID models. The purpose is to compare different predictor strategies to validate a viable predictive control system for the COVID19 relevant epidemiologic time series. For each model, after setting the initial conditions for each parameter, the prediction performance is calculated based on the presented data. The use of PID controllers is justified to avoid divergence in the system when the learning process is conducted. The wavelet neural network solution is considered here because of its rapid convergence rate. The proposed solutions are dynamic and can be adjusted and corrected in real time, according to the output error. The results are presented in each subsection of the chapter.

Fast and efficient malaria diagnostics are essential in efforts to detect and treat the disease in a proper time. The standard approach to diagnose malaria is a microscope exam, which is submitted to a subjective interpretation. Thus, the automating of the diagnosis process with the use of an intelligent system capable of recognizing malaria parasites could aid in the early treatment of the disease. Usually, laboratories capture a minimum set of images in low quality using a system of microscopes based on mobile devices. Due to the poor quality of such data, conventional algorithms do not process those images properly. This paper presents the application of deep learning techniques to improve the accuracy of malaria plasmodium detection in the presented context. In order to increase the number of training sets, deep convolutional generative adversarial networks (DCGAN) were used to generate reliable training data that were introduced in our deep learning model to improve accuracy. A total of 6 experiments were performed and a synthesized dataset of 2.200 images was generated by the DCGAN for the training phase. For a real image database with 600 blood smears with malaria plasmodium, the proposed Deep Learning architecture obtained the accuracy of 100% for the plasmodium detection. The results are promising and the solution could be employed to support a mass medical diagnosis system.

This book is a compilation of the best papers presented at the APEF 2019 conference which was held on 25th and 26th July 2019 at the Grand Copthorne Waterfront in Singapore. With a great number of submissions, it presents the latest research findings in economics and finance and discusses relevant issues in today's world. The book is a useful resource for readers who want access to economics, finance and business research focusing on the Asia-Pacific region.