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  • The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) was first conceptualized in 2016, which aimed to facilitate trade and finance liberalization among the three regions. The trade and financial environment of the GBA is unique. Due to the “one country, two systems” principle, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be trading partners bounded by WTO rule, but bilateral free trade agreements have been signed between Mainland China and Hong Kong, and between Mainland China and Macau, but not between Hong Kong and Macau. Furthermore, each of the three regions circulates a local currency subject to its own exchange rate policy, with Hong Kong Dollar and Macau Pataca currently pegged to the US Dollar. These affect the mobility of trade and capital flows in the area. Hence, this paper applies the widely-used price-based approach due to Cheung et al. [5] to analyze the degrees of real and financial integration in the GBA based on interest rates, exchange rates, and price indexes data from January, 2016 to November, 2021. The real interest differential (RID), uncovered interest differential (UID) and the deviation from purchasing power parity (PPD) between each regional pair have means that are statistically and economically close to zero, implying high real and financial integration in the GBA. The unit root tests for stationarity also confirm that the time series are mean-reverting, so the economic integration in the GBA in the long run is foreseeable.

  • An increasing number of countries have launched their central bank digital currencies (CBDC) in recent years, but the economic impacts of CBDC adoption are underexplored. To empirically assess how CBDC adoption influences regional economic integration, this paper investigates the Greater Bay Area, where China carried out one of its first digital renminbi pilot programs. The Greater Bay Area provides a good example because the growing acceptance of digital renminbi in the area can potentially mitigate transaction costs and risks due to the exchange rate volatility of the Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollar, and Macao pataca. CBDC adoption can lead to greater real and financial integrations by facilitating cross-border trade in goods and services. This paper evaluates deviations from uncovered interest rate parity, purchasing power parity, and real interest rate parity across Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao based on monthly interest rate and price data from January 2016 to December 2022. The time series have mean values near zero, which validate the parity conditions and indicate high degrees of financial, real, and economic integrations. The Markov regime-switching regression model identifies three regimes: (1) pre-Covid, (2) post-Covid, and (3) post-CBDC. The Covid-19 outbreak brought lower integration and stability, but the launch of the CBDC restored some of the pre-Covid integration and stability. Regimes 1 and 2 are persistent, and transitions from Regime 3 back to Regime 1 are probable. Hence, this study finds evidence that CBDC adoption improves regional economic integration in the short and long run.

  • The degree of economic integration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA), as reflected in the mobility of trade and capital flows, has been strengthened by free trade agreements, but obstacles including border effects, capital controls, differences of exchange rate systems and inadequate cross-regional coordination remain. Digital renminbi (e-CNY) has been tested in Shenzhen, a core GBA city since April 2020. If e-CNY is adopted in the GBA, the area will effectively become a single currency zone. Whether the GBA constitutes an “optimum currency area” (OCA) depends on its degree of economic integration. This paper computes real interest rate differential (RID), uncovered interest rate differential (UID) and deviation from purchasing power parity (PPD) of each regional pair based on data of interest rates, exchange rates and price indexes from 2016M2 to 2022M7. All UID, PPD and RID series have means within about 1 percent point from 0, indicating high degrees of financial integration, real integration and economic integration. With the exception of Guangdong-Macau RID, all series are stationary, implying mean-reverting behavior. Hence, the parities are expected to hold both in the short run and in the long run, which is a condition for an OCA in the GBA. Furthermore, the regression analysis finds that the test launch of e-CNY in Shenzhen (adjusted for the COVID-19 outbreak) has significant impacts on all RIDs, Guangdong-Macau PPD and Hong Kong-Macau PPD. With merely two and a half years of test launch, the introduction of e-CNY already had impacts on overall economic integration in the GBA.

Last update from database: 5/21/24, 11:02 PM (UTC)

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