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There are several techniques to support simulation of time series behavior. In this chapter, the approach will be based on the Composite Monte Carlo (CMC) simulation method. This method is able to model future outcomes of time series under analysis from the available data. The establishment of multiple correlations and causality between the data allows modeling the variables and probabilistic distributions and subsequently obtaining also probabilistic results for time series forecasting. To improve the predictor efficiency, computational intelligence techniques are proposed, including a fuzzy inference system and an Artificial Neural Network architecture. This type of model is suitable to be considered not only for the disease monitoring and compartmental classes, but also for managerial data such as clinical resources, medical and health team allocation, and bed management, which are data related to complex decision-making challenges.
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Projects are tactical and operational initiatives, and achieving specific outcomes through projects can help organizations achieve strategic goals. The effective use of project management tools and techniques is essential to achieve successful results, since the goal is to maximize the realization of the project's plan by effectively using the budget, time, and resources provided by the project owner to achieve the project's original purpose. The Project Management Maturity Model (PMMM) is a tool for measuring project management capabilities and is essential to improve project and portfolio performance in different industries. The main objective of this research is to analyze and characterize the maturity level and capacity of the IT industry in Macau and HengQin based on the assessment of the PMMM. The research also aims to assess and compare the maturity level in the IT industry in Macau and HengQin. An online survey was conducted and sent to IT project managers from Macau and HenqQin. A total of 34 responses were collected, divided into 3 different parts: Part I - General Information, Part II - Project Management Areas, and Part III - Perception. The results indicate that, in general, Project Managers state that their companies do not follow Project Management standards and best practices, classifying as Low and Very Low essential PM areas such as Planning and Scheduling (68%), Scope (61%) and Communications (64%). From a comparison perspective, project managers in Macau follow less formal frameworks than Hengqin in managing the triple constraints of the project. The collected data also indicate that Macau's communication management and stakeholder engagement are less mature than Hengqin's. Furthermore, the data indicate that maturity level is not necessarily related to education level, which means not higher education has a higher maturity level. Recommendations are provided for the IT industry in both areas, and specific comments are provided for each group or professionals. In conclusion, this work allows a novel characterization and a better understanding of the Project Management adoption and maturity level of the IT Industry in Macau and Hengqin
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At the beginning of 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) started a coordinated global effort to counterattack the potential exponential spread of the SARS-Cov2 virus, responsible for the coronavirus disease, officially named COVID-19. This comprehensive initiative included a research roadmap published in March 2020, including nine dimensions, from epidemiological research to diagnostic tools and vaccine development. With an unprecedented case, the areas of study related to the pandemic received funds and strong attention from different research communities (universities, government, industry, etc.), resulting in an exponential increase in the number of publications and results achieved in such a small window of time. Outstanding research cooperation projects were implemented during the outbreak, and innovative technologies were developed and improved significantly. Clinical and laboratory processes were improved, while managerial personnel were supported by a countless number of models and computational tools for the decision-making process. This chapter aims to introduce an overview of this favorable scenario and highlight a necessary discussion about ethical issues in research related to the COVID-19 and the challenge of low-quality research, focusing only on the publication of techniques and approaches with limited scientific evidence or even practical application. A legacy of lessons learned from this unique period of human history should influence and guide the scientific and industrial communities for the future.
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There are many systematic reviews on predicting stock. However, each of them reveals a different portion of the hybrid AI analysis and stock prediction puzzle. The principal objective of this research was to systematically review and conclude the systematic reviews on AI and stock to provide particularly useful predictions for making future strategies for stock markets. Keywords that would fall under the broad headings of AI and stock prediction were looked up in two databases, Scopus and Web of Science. We screened 69 titles and read 43 systematic reviews which include more than 379 studies before retaining 10 of them.
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In the last few years, the tourism industry has experienced rapid expansion and diversification, making it one of the fastest-growing financial industries in the world. Consequently, the hotel industry has significantly affected the environment's long-term viability. Many hotels have begun voluntarily implementing environmentally sustainable practices as they become more aware of their ecological footprint. There has been a great deal of discussion about the effects of hotel operations on the environment and tourism sustainability in Macau. It is because of these negative impacts that hoteliers have adopted green practices in an attempt to minimize them. By developing sustainability reports, hotels can set goals, measure performance, and manage change, resulting in better sustainability. It could also be viewed as a strategy to enhance the company’s sustainability reporting to ensure stakeholders know what the company does. The objective of this study is twofold based on the analysis of the official sustainability reports of four major hotel chains. Firstly, seven categories of sustainable practices effectively adopted by these chain hotels are identified and clusterized. Second, it is presented in which areas some hotels performed more efficiently than others, considering the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as a reference. The results allow a comprehensive clusterized analysis of the industry in a highly developed gaming and entertainment area of South China and create a clear comparison between relevant players and their concerns about sustainability practices.
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As the rate of change increases exponentially, organizations must adapt quickly to the business landscape's volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA). As a result, organizations must implement agile strategies and practices to ensure their responsiveness and readiness to any changes brought about by internal or external factors. With a greater number of changes, change agents are tasked with implementing various change management methodologies to ensure that change recipients accept change initiatives. This research will look at one of the methodologies used by change agents, the use of nudges from Thaler and Sunstein's Nudge Theory, which is a subtle intervention to influence an individual's decision-making with the goal of steering them towards a specific desired outcome; and analyze their effectiveness towards the change recipients when implemented. Change agents were interviewed on the application of Nudge Theory to change recipients when managing to change initiatives within their respective organizations. The results indicate that the use of nudges created by the change agents can significantly impact the level of resistance from the change recipients. If used correctly, the Nudge Theory can mitigate change resistance, and the success of a change initiative is higher. But, if change recipients are forced to comply, their resistance will be greater, affecting the organization overall.
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The application of different tools for predicting COVID19 cases spreading has been widely considered during the pandemic. Comparing different approaches is essential to analyze performance and the practical support they can provide for the current pandemic management. This work proposes using the susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic but infectious-symptomatic and infectious-recovered-deceased (SEAIRD) model for different learning models. The first analysis considers an unsupervised prediction, based directly on the epidemiologic compartmental model. After that, two supervised learning models are considered integrating computational intelligence techniques and control engineering: the fuzzy-PID and the wavelet-ANN-PID models. The purpose is to compare different predictor strategies to validate a viable predictive control system for the COVID19 relevant epidemiologic time series. For each model, after setting the initial conditions for each parameter, the prediction performance is calculated based on the presented data. The use of PID controllers is justified to avoid divergence in the system when the learning process is conducted. The wavelet neural network solution is considered here because of its rapid convergence rate. The proposed solutions are dynamic and can be adjusted and corrected in real time, according to the output error. The results are presented in each subsection of the chapter.
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The COVID-19 pandemic spread generated an urgent need for computational systems to model its behavior and support governments and healthcare teams to make proper decisions. There are not many cases of global pandemics in history, and the most recent one has unique characteristics, which are tightly connected to the current society’s lifestyle and beliefs, creating an environment of uncertainty. Because of that, the development of mathematical/computational models to forecast the pandemic behavior since its beginning, i.e., with a restricted amount of data collected, is necessary. This chapter focuses on the analysis of different data mining techniques to allow the pandemic prediction with a small amount of data. A case study is presented considering the data from Wuhan, the Chinese city where the virus was first detected, and the place where the major outbreak occurred. The PNN + CF method (Polynomial Neural Network with Corrective Feedback) is presented as the technique with the best prediction performance. This is a promising method that might be considered in future eventual waves of the current pandemic or event to have a suitable model for future epidemic outbreaks around the world.
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Monitoring signals such as fetal heart rate (FHR) are important indicators of fetal well-being. Computer-assisted analysis of FHR patterns has been successfully used as a decision support tool. However, the absence of a gold standard for the building blocks decision-making in the systems design process impairs the development of new solutions. Here we propose a prognostic model based on advanced signal processing techniques and machine learning algorithms for the fetal state assessment within a comprehensive evaluation process. Feature-engineering-based and time-series-based machine learning classifiers were modeled into three data segmentation schemas for CTU-UHB, HUFA, and DB-TRIUM datasets and the generalization performance was assessed by a two-way cross-dataset evaluation. It has been shown that the feature-based algorithms outperformed the time-series ones on data-limited scenarios. The Support Vector Machines (SVM) obtained the best results on the datasets individually: specificity (85.6% ) and sensitivity (67.5%). On the other hand, the most effective generalization results were achieved by the Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) with a specificity of 71.6% and sensitivity of 61.7%. The overall process provided a combination of techniques and methods that increased the final prognostic model performance, achieving relevant results and requiring a smaller amount of data when compared to the state-of-the-art fetal status assessment solutions.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant public health challenge on a global scale. It is imperative that we continue to undertake research in order to identify early markers of disease progression, enhance patient care through prompt diagnosis, identification of high-risk patients, early prevention, and efficient allocation of medical resources. In this particular study, we obtained 100 5-min electrocardiograms (ECGs) from 50 COVID-19 volunteers in two different positions, namely upright and supine, who were categorized as either moderately or critically ill. We used classification algorithms to analyze heart rate variability (HRV) metrics derived from the ECGs of the volunteers with the goal of predicting the severity of illness. Our study choose a configuration pro SVC that achieved 76% of accuracy, and 0.84 on F1 Score in predicting the severity of Covid-19 based on HRV metrics.
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