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  • This paper is motivated by two observations in the large civil aircraft (LCA) industry. (1) Boeing and Airbus are significantly different in the degree of offshoring. (2) The degree of offshoring also changes among different aircraft models. To offer an explanation, this paper focuses on issues related to fragmentation. Existing literature has established the tie between fragmented technology and offshoring. However, it is assumed that production can be fragmented readily and at no cost; and only exogenous global economic factors have impact on the degree of fragmentation. This model distinguishes itself from others by incorporating endogeneity in fragmentation. A final-good firm can spend on R&D specifically for its own fragmented technology. As a result, the final-good firm can optimally choose the portion of components to be offshored. A strategic trade policy model is used to show that the degree of offshoring depends on the firm's own cost of production, the host country's cost of production, the global state of technology as well as the government trade policies. In particular, export subsidy and subsidy on R&D of fragmented technology are shown to be policy substitutes. Keywords: Fragmentation; Offshoring; Outsourcing; Aircraft; Export subsidy; R&D subsidy; Boeing; Airbus JEL classification: F12; F13; F23; L13

  • This dissertation consists of three essays, covering the topics of foreign trade, offshoring and international rivalry. In particular, Chapter 1 analyzes the strategic capacity allocation of an international oligopoly. Because a line of products shares specific inputs that are fixed in the short run, a multiproduct oligopolist faces a capacity constraint in the production. Not being able to produce the desirable quantities to meet demand, an oligopolist strategically allocates its capacity among different products against its rival. If the market were monopolistic, a firm would mainly concern the effective profitability of a product when allocating its capacity and when responding to a capacity expansion. Identical duopolists that compete in a Cournot fashion should have identical capacity allocation. However, in a sequential game, while the Stackelberg leader allocates all its scarce capacity towards the more profitable product, the follower should still allocate some capacity towards the unprofitable product. This matches the observation that Boeing, the incumbent in the large commercial aircrafts (LCA) industry, specializes in smaller planes, while Airbus allocates resources more evenly towards both superjumbo planes and smaller planes. Chapter 2 provides an explanation to the observation that international oligopolists, which are similar in many ways (subject to the same state of technology, have equal market shares, etc.), may engage in significantly different degrees of offshoring. Different from previous studies, which considered fragmentation to be affected by global exogenous factors only, this essay sees fragmentation as an endogenous variable. A firm can invest on R&D of its own fragmentation technology to enable certain degrees of fragmentation, so that offshoring of those fragmented subparts can be achieved. An important implication of endogenous fragmentation is that the government now has a policy alternative to export subsidy. Very often, when export subsidy is prohibited under an FTA, a government has incentive to subsidize fragmentation of a firm, which can stimulate both export and offshoring. Chapter 3 investigates Macao's and Singapore's questionable goal to diversify among two tourism services—gambling and convention. Macao has a cost advantage in gambling while Singapore has a cost advantage in convention. When a city operates as a regional monopoly, the simple multiproduct model shows that it is optimal for a city to diversify in response to an expansion in the markets of the tourism services. If the two cities operate as a Cournot duopoly instead, there will be a higher degree of product differentiation between the cities. Yet, both cities diversify more when there is a market expansion. On the other hand, Osaka is a potential entrant. The three-city model shows that if Osaka's relative cost of producing convention is even lower than Singapore’s, both Macao and Singapore will produce greater proportions of gambling compared to the two-city case. In general, Macao and Singapore respond to Osaka’s rivalry by strategizing their product mixes to avoid head-on competition with Osaka.

  • This book is a compilation of the best papers presented at the APEF 2019 conference which was held on 25th and 26th July 2019 at the Grand Copthorne Waterfront in Singapore. With a great number of submissions, it presents the latest research findings in economics and finance and discusses relevant issues in today's world. The book is a useful resource for readers who want access to economics, finance and business research focusing on the Asia-Pacific region.

  • Objective: As a world tourist destination, Macao is inevitably under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market of integrated resorts in Macao are shared by only a few casino concessionaries, together forming an oligopoly. While the firms attempted to adjust price, quantity and quality of their hotel services in response to the pandemic, they could not overlook the strategic interactions with other players in the market. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the possible impact of the pandemic on the oligopolistic strategies in the integrated resort market in Macao. Methodology: Application of a theoretical model of differentiated oligopoly to this six-firm case shows that price differences across firms depend on their quality differentiation. In order to analyze these price differences empirically, this paper collects data of hotel room rates of the integrated resorts from November, 2019 to mid-August, 2020, covering the periods before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Originality: In the existing literature, there is a lack of studies of the oligopoly in the hospitality industry of Macao. Furthermore, the effect of COVID-19 is still ongoing, so this present paper is one of the first to perform such analysis. Results: The regression of each of the hotel price differentials on the COVID-19 dummy variable shows that COVID-19 has statistically significant impacts on almost all the price differentials. Intuitively, MGM and Wynn were in the high-price segment before and after the outbreak, while other firms switched positions in the low-price segment during the pandemic. One obvious downstream movement was by Conrad. According to the proposition derived from the theory, these imply that COVID-19 should have significant impact on the quality differentiation of the firms. Practical implications: The results are in line with the observations that the integrated resorts have rolled out staycation packages according to preferences of local residents. These quality adjustments observed in Macao’s hospitality industry currently only involved variable inputs rather than fixed inputs of production; therefore, the impact of COVID-19 should be seen as short-term effects. Keywords: Covid-19; Differentiated oligopoly; Hospitality industry; Hotel room rate; Oligopolistic market structure; Pricing strategy.

  • This paper aimed to build up the theorical and conceptual understanding of future forecasting study of Macau’s GDP and Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) by co-movement of economic indicators. Macau GDP and GGR showed co-movements with a number of time series economic indicators, including China’s exports and imports, China’s manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, China's electricity production growth, share price of some Macau’s gaming operators, etc. These time series data can be found in statistics departments of China, Macau and Hong Kong, stock exchanges, and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO). Burns and Mitchell’s study in 1946 identified co-movements between economic indicators and being further carried out and developed leading, coincident and lagging indicators, which is essential for future econometric models and nowcasting techniques developments to study these co-movements. In particular, with the proper application of nowcasting techniques, future studies can exploit the data of leading and coincident economic indicators to forecast Macau’s GDP and GGR within an acceptable level of error. Since Macau is a “monotown,” where the gaming revenue makes a significant contribution to the economy. The forecasting of gaming revenue is crucial as it aids the gambling and tourism industries in preparing supply and provides information to policymakers to plan for the near future. This research also contributes to understand Macau’s economy by investigating its internal and external economic variables.

  • The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) was first conceptualized in 2016, which aimed to facilitate trade and finance liberalization among the three regions. The trade and financial environment of the GBA is unique. Due to the “one country, two systems” principle, Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be trading partners bounded by WTO rule, but bilateral free trade agreements have been signed between Mainland China and Hong Kong, and between Mainland China and Macau, but not between Hong Kong and Macau. Furthermore, each of the three regions circulates a local currency subject to its own exchange rate policy, with Hong Kong Dollar and Macau Pataca currently pegged to the US Dollar. These affect the mobility of trade and capital flows in the area. Hence, this paper applies the widely-used price-based approach due to Cheung et al. [5] to analyze the degrees of real and financial integration in the GBA based on interest rates, exchange rates, and price indexes data from January, 2016 to November, 2021. The real interest differential (RID), uncovered interest differential (UID) and the deviation from purchasing power parity (PPD) between each regional pair have means that are statistically and economically close to zero, implying high real and financial integration in the GBA. The unit root tests for stationarity also confirm that the time series are mean-reverting, so the economic integration in the GBA in the long run is foreseeable.

Last update from database: 3/28/23, 6:32 PM (UTC)