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Objective: As a world tourist destination, Macao is inevitably under the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the market of integrated resorts in Macao are shared by only a few casino concessionaries, together forming an oligopoly. While the firms attempted to adjust price, quantity and quality of their hotel services in response to the pandemic, they could not overlook the strategic interactions with other players in the market. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the possible impact of the pandemic on the oligopolistic strategies in the integrated resort market in Macao. Methodology: Application of a theoretical model of differentiated oligopoly to this six-firm case shows that price differences across firms depend on their quality differentiation. In order to analyze these price differences empirically, this paper collects data of hotel room rates of the integrated resorts from November, 2019 to mid-August, 2020, covering the periods before and after the outbreak of COVID-19. Originality: In the existing literature, there is a lack of studies of the oligopoly in the hospitality industry of Macao. Furthermore, the effect of COVID-19 is still ongoing, so this present paper is one of the first to perform such analysis. Results: The regression of each of the hotel price differentials on the COVID-19 dummy variable shows that COVID-19 has statistically significant impacts on almost all the price differentials. Intuitively, MGM and Wynn were in the high-price segment before and after the outbreak, while other firms switched positions in the low-price segment during the pandemic. One obvious downstream movement was by Conrad. According to the proposition derived from the theory, these imply that COVID-19 should have significant impact on the quality differentiation of the firms. Practical implications: The results are in line with the observations that the integrated resorts have rolled out staycation packages according to preferences of local residents. These quality adjustments observed in Macao’s hospitality industry currently only involved variable inputs rather than fixed inputs of production; therefore, the impact of COVID-19 should be seen as short-term effects. Keywords: Covid-19; Differentiated oligopoly; Hospitality industry; Hotel room rate; Oligopolistic market structure; Pricing strategy.
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Air pollution is a major concern issue on Macao since the concentration levels of several of the most common pollutants are frequently above the internationally recommended values. The low air quality episodes impacts on human health paired with highly populated urban areas are important motivations to develop forecast methodologies in order to anticipate pollution episodes, allowing establishing warnings to the local community to take precautionary measures and avoid outdoor activities during this period. Using statistical methods (multiple linear regression (MLR) and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis) we were able to develop forecasting models for the main pollutants (NO2, PM2.5, and O3) enabling us to know the next day concentrations with a good skill, translated by high coefficients of determination (0.82–0.90) on a 95% confidence level. The model development was based on six years of historical data, 2013 to 2018, consisting of surface and upper-air meteorological observations and surface air quality observations. The year of 2019 was used for model validation. From an initially large group of meteorological and air quality variables only a few were identified as significant dependent variables in the model. The selected meteorological variables included geopotential height, relative humidity and air temperature at different altitude levels and atmospheric stability characterization parameters. The air quality predictors used included recent past hourly levels of mean concentrations for NO2 and PM2.5 and maximum concentrations for O3. The application of the obtained models provides the expected daily mean concentrations for NO2 and PM2.5 and maximum hourly concentrations O3 for the next day in Taipa Ambient air quality monitoring stations. The described methodology is now operational, in Macao, since 2020.
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Association Rule Mining by Aprior method has been one of the popular data mining techniques for decades, where knowledge in the form of item-association rules is harvested from a dataset. The quality of item-association rules nevertheless depends on the concentration of frequent items from the input dataset. When the dataset becomes large, the items are scattered far apart. It is known from previous literature that clustering helps produce some data groups which are concentrated with frequent items. Among all the data clusters generated by a clustering algorithm, there must be one or more clusters which contain suitable and frequent items. In turn, the association rules that are mined from such clusters would be assured of better qualities in terms of high confidence than those mined from the whole dataset. However, it is not known in advance which cluster is the suitable one until all the clusters are tried by association rule mining. It is time consuming if they were to be tested by brute-force. In this paper, a statistical property called prior probability is investigated with respect to selecting the best out of many clusters by a clustering algorithm as a pre-processing step before association rule mining. Experiment results indicate that there is correlation between prior probability of the best cluster and the relatively high quality of association rules generated from that cluster. The results are significant as it is possible to know which cluster should be best used for association rule mining instead of testing them all out exhaustively.
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